Abstract: Through the careful interpretation of the Detailed Grading regulations of Work Safety Standardization Basic Norms in Metallurgical and Other Industry and Trade Industries ，the safety early warning indicator was broken down into 13 level indicators and 38 secondary indicators，then，the corresponding normalized weights were given after treatment to the corresponding index． For these thirteen security warning indicators，mathematical quantitative models were established， meanwhile，calculation methods and the security state division of early warning indicators were given． Combined with GM ( 1， 1) gray prediction theory and Gray Model，predictive models were built suitable for industry and trade enterprises and predictions were made aimed at the early warning index in the future helping industry and trade corporation predominate dynamic safety production in real-time and making a scientific and reasonable decisions．