我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价
doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.201504029
STUDY ON COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF BIOMASS GASIFICATION POWER GENERATION INDUSTRY IN CHINA
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摘要: 针对我国生物质气化发电行业的现状,总结诸多风险的影响因素,建立了我国生物质气化发电行业综合风险评价体系。该评价体系主要包括5个一级风险影响因素:市场风险、技术风险、安全风险、管理风险、环境风险,每个一级影响因素包括4个二级风险影响因素。由层次分析法获得各个一级影响因素和二级影响因素的权重值,根据所构建的评价集和评分标准,结合模糊综合评价法对我国生物质气化发电行业现状的综合风险等级做定量定性分析。综合风险评价研究结果表明,生物质气化发电行业处于"较高"的风险等级,与实际情况相符。综合风险评价体系的构建合理,所建立的评价方法以及相应对策分析可为决策者提供参考依据。Abstract: Based on the present situation of biomass gasification power generation industry in China,this paper proposed a comprehensive risk assessment index system for China's biomass gasification power generation industry. The system included five first-level effect factors such as market risk,technical risk,security risk,management risk and environmental risk. Each first-level effect factor covered four sub-factors. Analytic hierarchy processs( AHP) was integrated with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to calculate the risk grade of biomass gasification power generation industry in qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results showed that the current biomass gasification power generation industry in China had a higher level risk in accordance with the real situation. The construction of comprehensive risk evaluation system was reasonable. The study provided some suggestions and relevant countermeasures to promote the development of biomass gasification power generation industry.
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