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中国光伏组件报废量的预测

张钦,  傅丽芝

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文章导航 > 环境工程  > 2020 >  38(6): 214-220
张钦, 傅丽芝. 中国光伏组件报废量的预测[J]. 环境工程, 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
引用本文: 张钦, 傅丽芝. 中国光伏组件报废量的预测[J]. 环境工程, 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
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ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
Citation: ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
shu

中国光伏组件报废量的预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

  • 1. 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院, 南京 210016;

  • 2. 南京航空航天大学 能源软科学研究中心, 南京 210016

基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金重点项目(71834003)。

国家自然科学基金面上项目(71774081)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    张钦(1963-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为新能源产业管理与政策。qin.zhang@163.com

    通讯作者:

    傅丽芝(1994-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为新能源产业管理与政策。fulizhi07@163.com

RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA

  • 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;

  • 2. Research Center for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

    摘要
  • 摘要: 在采用威布尔分布模型分析光伏组件使用寿命分布情况的基础上,使用神经网络模型和市场供给A模型分别对中国光伏装机容量和组件报废量进行预测。将光伏组件按照不同质量分成2阶段,考虑不同退化情景预测组件报废量,并计算组件中有价值材料和金属报废量。预测结果表明:2025年后中国光伏组件报废量爆发,到2050年,中国光伏组件报废量最高可达60.22 GW,累计报废最高可达673 GW。在4种退化情景下,到2050年,典型贵金属方面最高产生3134.5 t的Ag;稀有金属方面最高产生228.1 t的Te;463.4 t的Cd,58.5 t的Ga,29.8 t的In;有毒有害金属方面最高产生263.9 t的Pb;Si最高产生量43735.4 t。到2050年,光伏组件材料累积废弃总量最高可达64623193.6 t。
    Abstract: This study used the Weibull distribution model to analyze China's photovoltaics. Then the neural network model and the market supply A model were used to predict the installed capacity of PV and the amount of modules waste in China. In this paper, we divided PV modules into two phases according to different quality, and considered the four degradation scenarios to predict component scrap. Then we calculated the valuable materials and metal scrap in the components. The results showed that China's PV module will scrap out after 2025. In 2050, China's PV module will scrap up to 60.22 GW, and the accumulative quantity up to 673 GW. In four degradation scenariost, by 2050, typical precious metals will produce up to 3134.5 tons of Ag; the highest yield of rare metals will include 228.1 tons of Te, 463.4 tons of Cd, 58.5 tons of Ga, 29.8 tons of In; for toxic and harmful metals, 263.9 tons of Pb will be produced; and a maximum of 43735.4 tons of Si will be produce. By 2050, the cumulative total waste of PV module materials will reach the peak of 64423193.6 tons.
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