二氧化碳排放达峰期、平台期及下降期定量判断方法研究

张立; 万昕; 蒋含颖; 李璇; 徐少东; 蔡博峰

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

二氧化碳排放达峰期、平台期及下降期定量判断方法研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

张立^1,2,
万昕³,
蒋含颖⁴,
李璇⁵,
徐少东⁵,
蔡博峰^1, ,

1. 生态环境部环境规划院碳达峰碳中和研究中心, 北京 100012;
2. 加州大学洛杉矶分校环境与可持续发展研究所, 加利福尼亚州, 90095;
3. 上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院, 上海 201306;
4. 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100091;
5. 中国人民大学统计学院, 北京 100872

基金项目:

中国工程院咨询研究项目"江西碳达峰与碳中和模式与实现路径研究"（2021-01JXZD-06）。

详细信息

作者简介:
张立(1992-),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向为温室气体达峰和空气质量达标。lizhang1122@g.ucla.edu

通讯作者:
蔡博峰(1977-),男,博士,研究员,主要研究方向为温室气体清单。caibf@caep.org.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-06-01
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-26

QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION ON THE STATUS OF CO₂ EMISSIONS: PEAK PERIOD, PLATEAU PERIOD, AND DECLINE PERIOD

1. Center for Carbon Neutrality, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
2. Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles 90095, United States;
3. Low Carbon College, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 201306, China;
4. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100091, China;
5. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

摘要

摘要: 基于Bootstrap数理统计方法，构建二氧化碳排放状态判断方法模型（evaluation model on the status of CO₂ emissions，ESC）。选取排放统计基础较好的地区，利用权威机构的多源长时间序列数据，结合IPCC清单指南确定和分析二氧化碳排放数据的分布特征，包括标准差和不确定性范围（取95%置信区间），以此作为建立碳排放达峰期、平台期及下降期的定量判断的基础，解决因核算、计量方法的不同造成排放结果的误差。研究结果表明，达峰期判断需要以峰值排放量浮动1%（0.9%~1.1%）的范围为依据，若碳排放量满足条件，则认为处于达峰期；平台期和下降期则以达峰后排放量的连续多年的年均下降率与2%（1.8%~2.2%）比较，若碳达峰后排放量的年均下降率小于2%，则认为碳排放仍处于平台期，否则认为碳排放处于下降期。基于ESC模型对欧盟和美国的历史碳排放数据进行排放状态判断，结果显示，欧盟地区在1979年碳排放达峰后，在1980-1983年进入下降期。美国在2007年碳达峰后，在2008-2012年进入下降期。ESC模型的分析结果与2个地区的排放趋势呈高度一致，表明该模型可以作为国家、地区（省份）、城市CO₂排放状态的定量判断方法，为碳排放路径分析和情景模拟研究提供重要支撑，为决策者提供科学的参考依据。
- 二氧化碳 /
- 排放状态 /
- 达峰期 /
- 平台期 /
- 下降期 /
- 定量判断
Abstract: Based on mathematical statistics methods of Bootstrap sampling, we constructed an Evaluation model on the Status of CO₂ emissions (ESC). This paper selected the areas with a good statistical basis, used multi-source time series data from the authorities, and combined with the emission uncertainty by referring to the IPCC Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories to explore the CO₂ emission distribution and statistical parameters, which included the standard deviation and uncertainty of the emission. The statistical parameters were used as a quantitative criterion to determine the peak, plateau, and decline period of CO₂ emission and solve the calculation errors caused by statistical accounting. Based on the ESC model, the peak period was within 1% (0.9%~1.1%) of peak CO₂ emission. The plateau and decline period were evaluated based on the comparison between the annual decline rate and 2% (1.8%~2.2%). Once the annual decline rate after the CO₂ emission peak exceeded 2%, we assumed the CO₂ emission to be the decline period, otherwise the plateau period. Besides, we applied the ESC model to evaluate the periods of historical CO₂ emission for the European Union and the United States. The results showed that:the European Union reached the CO₂ emission peak in 1979, then entered the decline period from 1980 to 1983; the United States reached the CO₂ emission peak in 2007, then entered the decline period of CO₂ emission from 2008 to 2012; our model was reasonable on quantitative evaluation on the status of CO₂ emission peak. This study could provide reference value for quantitative evaluation on the status of CO₂ emission (including the peak, plateau, and decline period) for the country, region (province), or the city, provide sound support for studies on the pathway analysis and scenario simulation of CO₂ emission, and offer scientific evaluation reference for decision makers.
- CO₂ /
- emission status /
- peak period /
- plateau period /
- decline period /
- quantitative evaluation

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