中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

朱淑瑛; 刘惠; 董金池; 蔡博峰; 何捷; 杨璐; 夏楚瑜; 汤铃

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202110003

中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110003

朱淑瑛^1,2,
刘惠³,
董金池^2,4,
蔡博峰^2, ,,
何捷⁵,
杨璐³,
夏楚瑜⁶,
汤铃⁷

1. 北京化工大学经济管理学院, 北京 100029;
2. 生态环境部环境规划院碳达峰碳中和研究中心, 北京 100012;
3. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院, 武汉 430079;
4. 南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室, 南京 210023;
5. 中国建筑材料科学研究总院有限公司, 北京 100024;
6. 北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
7. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100191

基金项目:

基于排放情景-空气质量模型的中国城市"双达"评估方法研究（72074154）。

详细信息

作者简介:
朱淑瑛(1996-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究重点行业二氧化碳减排路径与成本。zhushuyingz@163.com

通讯作者:
蔡博峰(1977-),男,研究员,主要研究温室气体清单。caibf@caep.org.cn

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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-07-26
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-26

MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES AND MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST CURVES FOR CEMENT INDUSTRY IN CHINA

ZHU Shu-ying^1,2,
LIU Hui³,
DONG Jin-chi^2,4,
CAI Bo-feng^{2
, ,},
HE Jie⁵,
YANG Lu³,
XIA Chu-yu⁶,
TANG Ling⁷

1. School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China;
2. Center for Carbon Neutrality, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
3. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;
4. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;
5. China Building Materials Academy, Beijing 100024, China;
6. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
7. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China

摘要

摘要: 为降低水泥行业碳减排成本，确定最优碳减排技术路径，研究基于经济-能源模型，核算中国水泥行业最新碳减排技术的边际减排成本，使用情景分析方法，研究了与未实施减排技术相比，2020年17项技术的碳减排潜力，并将其作为基准情景，和2025，2030，2035年3个未来情景的碳减排潜力作比较，从而得出不同情景下的边际减排成本曲线。结果表明：1）2020年我国水泥行业17项减排技术的平均减排成本为124元/tCO₂，2020年实现总减排量3043万t，总减排成本为10.3亿元；在保持技术水平和排放水平不变的情况下，2035年17项减排技术可实现总减排量21307万t，总减排成本为103.4亿元。2）在各项减排技术中，集成模块化窑衬节能技术与水泥熟料烧成系统优化技术，具有较高减排潜力和较低减排成本，适合广泛推广；CO₂捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术虽具有较高减排成本，但是未来减排潜力较大，应给予重视。3）技术普及率与熟料产量是决定减排潜力的重要因素，因此未来水泥行业应注重节能减排政策技术推广与产业结构调整，可进一步实现减排目标。
- 水泥行业 /
- 减排技术 /
- 边际减排成本曲线 /
- 碳达峰
Abstract: In order to reduce the carbon emission abatement cost of cement industry and determine the optimal carbon emission reduction technology path, based on the economic-energy model, we calculated the marginal abatement cost of the latest carbon emission reduction technology in China's cement industry in this paper. Using scenario analysis method to study the future emission reduction potential of 17 technologies implemented in 2020, compared with the non-implemented technologies, we took them as the benchmark scenario and compare them to carbon emission reduction potentials of the three future scenarios in 2025, 2030 and 2035 to obtain the different marginal emission reduction cost curves. The results showed that:1) the average abatement cost of 17 technologies in China's cement industry was 124 yuan/tCO₂ in 2020. The total emission reduction was 30.4 million tons in 2020, and the total abatement cost was 1.03 billion yuan; for maintaining the same level of technology and emission, in 2035, the total emission reduction of 17 technologies will be 213.07 million tons, and the total abatement cost will be 10.34 billion yuan. 2) among the emission abatement technologies, the energy saving technology of integrated modular kiln lining and optimization technology of cement clinker firing system had higher emission reduction potential and lower abatement cost. Although carbon capture, use and storage technology had higher abatement cost, it had greater potential for future emission reductions. 3) technology penetration rate and clinker outputs were important factors in determining emission reduction potential. Therefore, in the future, the cement industry should pay attention to energy conservation and emission reduction policies, technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment, so as to further achieve the emission reduction target.
- cement industry /
- emission reduction technology /
- marginal abatement cost curve /
- carbon emission peak

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