中国道路交通部门减排技术及成本研究

夏楚瑜; 马冬; 蔡博峰; 陈彬; 刘惠; 杨璐; 吕晨

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202110007

中国道路交通部门减排技术及成本研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110007

夏楚瑜¹,
马冬^2,3,
蔡博峰⁴,
陈彬¹,
刘惠⁵,
杨璐⁵,
吕晨^4, ,

1. 北京师范大学环境学院环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
2. 中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护机动车污染控制与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012;
3. 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084;
4. 生态环境部环境规划院碳达峰碳中和研究中心, 北京 100012;
5. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院, 武汉 430079

基金项目:

中国工程院咨询研究项目"江西碳达峰与碳中和模式与实现路径研究"（2021-01JXZD-06）；国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"干旱区农业水-土空间耦合模型与优化配置研究-以张掖为例"（72004014）；中国博士后科学基金（2021M690426）。

详细信息

作者简介:
夏楚瑜(1992-),女,博士,主要研究方向为低韧性空间导向下的空间规划与管理。chuyu.xia@bnu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
吕晨(1994-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为温室气体排放核算。lvchen@caep.org.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-26
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-26

ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSIONS ABATEMENT TECHNOLOGY AND COST IN ROAD TRANSPORT SECTOR OF CHINA

XIA Chu-yu¹,
MA Dong^2,3,
CAI Bo-feng⁴,
CHEN Bin¹,
LIU Hui⁵,
YANG Lu⁵,
LV Chen^{4
, ,}

1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Vehicle Emission Control and Simulation, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;
3. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
4. Center for Carbon Neutrality, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
5. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

摘要

摘要: 道路交通作为交通部门碳排放的重要来源，将在实现"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的过程中承担重任。碳减排技术成本的研究有利于平衡道路交通机动化发展和"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的实现，是实现道路交通可持续发展的重要措施。为此，基于乘用车、商用客车、轻型商用货车和重型商用货车等车型，结合发动机技术、变速器技术、辅助系统技术和整车技术和新能源车应用等16种关键节能减排技术的减排潜力和成本，建立了2020-2035年我国道路交通碳排放的边际减排成本（MAC）曲线，评估了通过推广车辆节能技术和新能源车等措施来实现减排目标的累积成本。主要得到以下结论：1）相同的车辆节能减排技术，应用在重型商用货车的单位减排成本远小于其他车型，新能源车在乘用车的应用具有很大的减排潜力，但是与其他车型相比并不具有成本优势。2）燃料电池新能源车的单位减排成本远高于纯电动和插电混合动力新能源车，未来需降低燃料电池的生产成本以及氢气的制备、储存和运输成本。3）2020-2035年的减排总成本曲线显示总减排成本先增加后下降的趋势，这表明随着节能减排技术的合理推广，该部门减排阻力在不断下降。
- 道路交通 /
- 碳减排成本 /
- 减排潜力 /
- MAC曲线 /
- 累积成本
Abstract: As an important source of carbon emissions in the transportation sector, road transportation will take on important responsibilities in the process of achieving the goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality. Research on the cost of carbon emission reduction technologies is conducive to balancing the development of road traffic motorization and the realization of this goal, which is an important measure to realize the sustainable development of road transport. This research divided vehicles into passenger cars, commercial buses, light commercial trucks and heavy commercial trucks, and then analyzed reduction potential and cost of the engine technology, transmission technology, auxiliary system technology, vehicle technology and new energy vehicle applications on these vehicles, and finally established the MAC curve of my country's road transport carbon emissions from 2020 to 2035. The main conclusions are as follows:1) the same vehicle energy saving and emission reduction technology had the lowest unit carbon emissions abatement cost when applied to heavy commercial truck. Meanwhile, the application of new energy vehicles in passenger cars had great potential for emission reduction, but it did not occupy a cost advantage compared with other models. 2)the unit carbon emissions abatement cost of fuel cell new energy vehicles was much higher than that of pure electric and plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles. In the future, it was necessary to reduce the production cost of fuel cells and the cost of hydrogen preparation, storage and transportation. 3) the total carbon emissions abatement costs first increased and then decreased, which indicated that with the reasonable promotion of energy-saving emission reduction technologies, the resistance to emission reduction in this sector was declining.
- road transport /
- carbon emissions abatement costs /
- emission reduction potential /
- MAC /

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