UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION FOR TRADING RATE SYSTEM FOR EFFLUENT TRADING IN DAGU RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL
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摘要: 排污权交易是一种成本低廉、效果显著的水质管理机制,但由于水体污染物本身的理化特性及河流自净作用,交易的公平性面临巨大挑战,严重影响排污权交易机制的效率及水质目标的实现,而交易率是解决这一挑战的有效途径。基于SWAT模型开展大沽河流域水文和水质模拟,获得了入海口NH3-N(氨氮)负荷对不同污染源的响应;分析了交易率的空间变异性,进行了不同污染源之间的NH3-N排污权交易率体系不确定性估算。研究结果可为流域排污权交易制度的建立和完善奠定基础,为流域管理与生态恢复提供重要支撑。Abstract: Effluent trading is a cost-effective and efficient water quality management measure. Due to the physicochemical characteristics of water pollutants and stream self-purification, equity of the measure is facing huge challenges. These will seriously affect the efficiency of effluent trading and the realization of water quality objectives. Trading ratio is an effective way to solve this challenge. In this study, the SWAT model was used to simulate the hydrology and water quality of Dagu River basin. Then the response of NH3-N(ammonia nitrogen) loading in estuary to different pollution sources was obtained. On this basis, the spatial heterogeneity of trading ratio was analyzed, and the uncertainty estimation of the trading ratio system of discharge permits for NH3-N among different pollution sources was carried out. The results can not only lay a foundation for the establishment and improvement of the effluent trading system, but also provide support for watershed management and ecological restoration.
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Key words:
- trading ratio /
- effluent trading /
- uncertainty /
- SWAT /
- water quality management
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