长江口入海通道水质综合分析与模型预测

曾一川; 曾会国; 袁伟皓; 冯翔宇; 李保; 王华

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

长江口入海通道水质综合分析与模型预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

曾一川^1,2,
曾会国³,
袁伟皓^1,2,
冯翔宇^1,2,
李保⁴,
王华^1,2, ,

1. 河海大学环境学院, 南京 210098;
2. 河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 南京 210098;
3. 贵阳高科控股集团建设公司, 贵阳 550000;
4. 长江水利委员会水文局长江口水文水资源勘测局, 上海 200136

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779075)

国家科技重大专项(2017ZX07203002-01)

中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金

详细信息

作者简介:
曾一川(1998-),男,硕士生,主要研究方向为水环境数值模拟。819984414@qq.com

通讯作者:
王华(1983-),男,教授,主要研究方向为水污染控制、水环境水质模拟。wanghua543543@163.com

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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-07
- 网络出版日期: 2022-07-02

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY

1. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lake of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3. Construction Company, Guiyang High-Tech Holding Group Co., Ltd., Guiyang 550000, China;
4. Yangtze River Estuary Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Shanghai 200136, China

摘要

摘要: 以中国最大河口地区为例,2004—2018年对包括徐六泾、启东港、南港、北港在内的4个长江口主要入海通道断面进行定期监测。对水样中的高锰酸盐指数、氨氮(NH₃-N)、总磷(TP)等水质参数进行测定,运用综合水质标识指数法(WQII)对入海通道断面水质进行综合分析。选择溶解氧(DO)作为响应变量,建立各断面逐步回归方程、季节性差分自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA),并对2018年10—12月进行预测以检验模型精度,比较2种模型在各断面的适用性。结果显示:1)长江口各入海通道断面DO浓度在空间上呈现徐六泾最高、北支其次、南支最低的规律,平均值为8.73 mg/L;2)各断面综合水质标识指数从相对最优开始排列依次为启东港(3.110)>徐六泾(3.120)>北港(3.220)>南港(3.420);3)除南港断面外,SARIMA模型相较逐步回归方程对长江口断面DO浓度预测的相对偏差更小。
- 长江口 /
- 入海通道 /
- 综合水质标识指数法 /
- SARIMA模型 /
- 逐步回归
Abstract: Taking the largest estuary in China as an example, regular monitoring was carried out at four major cross-sections, including Xuliujing, Qidonggang, Nangang and Beigang in Yangtze Estuary from 2004 to 2018. Water quality parameters such as permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen(NH₃-N) and total phosphorus(TP) were measured in water samples. A comprehensive analysis of the water quality at the cross-sections was conducted via the comprehensive water quality identification index(WQII) method; dissolved oxygen(DO) was selected as the response variable to establish stepwise regression equations and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(SARIMA) for each cross-section, and predictions were made from October to December 2018 to test the accuracy of the models and compare the applicability of the two models at each cross-section. The results showed that:1) based on the monthly data from 2004 to 2018, the average DO concentration at the representative cross-sections of the main sea-entry channels of the Yangtze Estuary was 8.73 mg/L; spatially, the DO concentration in the Yangtze Estuary showed a pattern that Xuliujing was the highest and the northern branch was higher than the southern branch. 2) based on the comprehensive water quality marker index, the sections, water quality was in the order of Qidonggang(3.110)>Xuliujing(3.120)>Beigang(3.220)>Nangang(3.420);3) when predicting DO, the SARIMA model was more accurate than the stepwise regression equation in predicting DO at the Xuliujing, Qidonggang and Beigang section, while the stepwise regression equation performed better at the Nangang section.
- Yangtze Estuary /
- sea-entry channel /
- WQII method /
- SARIMA model /
- stepwise regression

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