基于Logistic方法的河口逐时低盐取水可行性预测

唐琦; 孔俊; 周晨琦; 陈伟伦

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202206005

基于Logistic方法的河口逐时低盐取水可行性预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202206005

唐琦¹,
孔俊^1, ,,
周晨琦²,
陈伟伦¹

1. 河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室, 南京 210098;
2. 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院, 广州 510610

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(U2040204,51979095)

国家重点研发计划资助(2021YFB2600200)

详细信息

作者简介:
唐琦(1998-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事海岸水动力研究。3066026912@qq.com

通讯作者:
孔俊(1978-),男,教授,博士,主要从事海岸水动力研究。kongjun999@126.com

计量
- 文章访问数: 158
- HTML全文浏览量: 36
- PDF下载量: 5
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-11-30
- 网络出版日期: 2022-09-01
- 刊出日期: 2022-09-01

FEASIBILITY PREDICTION OF HOURLY LOW SALT WATER INTAKE IN ESTUARY BASED ON LOGISTIC METHOD

1. Key Laboratory of Coastal Disaster and Protection, Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510610, China

摘要

摘要:
针对河口地区咸潮上溯过程复杂,导致滨海水厂每日逐时取淡水时机难以把控的难题,采用Logistic方法,考虑历史盐度记忆效应,建立基于河口地区动力指标的逐时取水评估统计模型,实现了河口地区盐度<0.5‰(含氯度<250 mg/L)的逐时取水可行性预报。以珠江磨刀门河口为实例,模型预测结果准确率在90%以上,实现了次日逐时取水的可靠预报,为水厂及时准备取水和停止取水提供了有效的参考依据,该模型对于其他河口地区低盐度逐时取水的风险评估具有一定参考意义。
- 磨刀门河口 /
- 咸潮上溯 /
- Logistic模型 /
- 取水可行性 /
- 历史效应
Abstract:
Given the complex process of salt tide upstream in the estuary area,and it's difficult to control the timing of daily hourly freshwater intake by coastal water plants,a statistical model for hourly water intake evaluation based on the dynamic index of the estuary area was established by using the Logistic method and considering the historical salinity memory effect,to realize the hourly water intake prediction of waterbodies with less than 0.5‰ salinity in the estuary area.Taking the Modaomen estuary of the Pearl River as an example,the accuracy of the prediction results of the model was found higher than 90%,which realized the reliable prediction of hourly water intake the next day,and provided an effective reference basis for the water plants to prepare and stop water intake in time.The model had a certain reference significance for the risk assessment of hourly water intake with low salinity in other estuaries.
- Modaomen estuary /
- salt water intrusion /
- Logistic model /
- water availability /
- history effect

HTML全文

参考文献(19)

[1]	BLUMBERG A F, MELLOR G L. A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model[J]. Three-Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models, 1987, 4:1-16.
[2]	CHEN C S, LIU H D, BEARDSLEY R C. An unstructured grid, finite-volume, three-dimensional, primitive equations ocean model:application to coastal ocean and estuaries[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2003, 20(1):159-186.
[3]	TRAN ANH D, HOANG L P, BUI M D, et al. Simulating future flows and salinity intrusion using combined one-and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling:the case of Hau River, Vietnamese Mekong delta[J]. Water, 2018, 10(7):897.
[4]	AKTER A, TANIM A H. Salinity distribution in river network of a partially mixed estuary[J]. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 2021, 147(2):04020055.
[5]	刘德地,陈晓宏.基于偏最小二乘回归与支持向量机耦合的咸潮预报模型[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(4):89-92.
[6]	陈水森,方立刚,李宏丽,等.珠江口咸潮入侵分析与经验模型:以磨刀门水道为例[J].水科学进展,2007,18(5):751-755.
[7]	叶荣辉,余顺超,刘诚,等.珠江河口二维咸潮数值预报系统研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2016,24(4):712-719.
[8]	陈记臣,查悉妮,卓文珊,等.基于AdaBoost算法和BP神经网络的咸潮模拟研究[J].人民珠江,2017,38(1):5-10.
[9]	郑晓琴,肖文军,于芸,等.基于径流和潮汐的长江口盐水入侵统计预测研究[J].海洋预报,2014,31(4):18-23.
[10]	李光辉.钱塘江河口盐水入侵数值模拟[D].杭州:浙江大学,2017.
[11]	尹小玲,赵雪峰,黄舒琴,等.分层型河口咸水上溯对径流潮汐共同作用的基本响应[J].水资源保护,2020,36(4):68-74.
[12]	陈信颖,包芸.磨刀门水道枯季不同径流量下的咸界运动规律研究[C]//《水动力学研究与进展》编委会,中国力学学会,中国造船工程学会,河海大学.第二十七届全国水动力学研讨会文集(下册).上海:水动力学研究与进展杂志社,2015:6.
[13]	韩志远,田向平,欧素英.人类活动对磨刀门水道河床地形和潮汐动力的影响[J].地理科学,2010,30(4):582-587.
[14]	刘忠辉,宏波.海平面上升对珠江河口东四口门盐水入侵的影响[J].人民珠江,2019,40(5):43-49 ,81.
[15]	李凯.基于Logistic回归模型在水质监测中的应用[J].科技与企业,2014(19):193.
[16]	潘存鸿,张舒羽,唐子文.钱塘江河口水流-河床相互作用及对盐水入侵的影响[J].水科学进展,2015,26(4):535-542.
[17]	丁磊,窦希萍,高祥宇,等.长江口2013年和2014年枯季盐水入侵分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(4):47-53.
[18]	LANGE X, KLINGBEIL K, BURCHARD H. Inversions of estuarine circulation are frequent in a weakly tidal estuary with variable wind forcing and seaward salinity fluctuations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 2020, 125(9):e2019JC015789.
[19]	刘祖发,施宁宁,关帅,等.基于FVCOM的磨刀门水道盐水入侵三维数值模拟[J].水动力学研究与进展(A辑),2016,31(3):286-294.