珠三角碳达峰系统动力学预测

丁乙; 尹剑; 姜洪涛; 夏芮兹; 卫丹琪; 罗心愿

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202307004

珠三角碳达峰系统动力学预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202307004

丁乙^1,2,
尹剑^1,2, ,,
姜洪涛^1,2,
夏芮兹^1,2,
卫丹琪^1,2,
罗心愿^1,2

1. 贵州财经大学大数据应用与经济学院, 贵阳 550025;
2. 贵州财经大学西部现代化研究中心, 贵阳 550025

基金项目:

贵州省哲学社会科学规划重点项目（21GZZD59）；贵州财经大学研究生科研项目（2022ZXSY003）

详细信息

作者简介:
丁乙(1999-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为碳排放核算与预测。13131403843@163.com

通讯作者:
尹剑(1984-),男,教授,主要研究方向为区域科学。jiany@mail.gufe.edu.cn

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- 文章访问数: 124
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-11-08

SYSTEM DYNAMICS PREDICTION OF CARBON PEAKING IN PEARL RIVER DELTA

DING Yi^1,2,
YIN Jian^{1,2
, ,},
JIANG Hongtao^1,2,
XIA Ruici^1,2,
WEI Danqi^1,2,
LUO Xinyuan^1,2

1. College of Big Data Application and Economic, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China;
2. Center for China Western Modernization, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang 550025, China

摘要

摘要: 基于2000—2020年数据，利用IPCC法对珠三角碳排放总量进行测算，然后运用STIRPAT模型将碳排放影响因素划分为7个维度，使用空间杜宾模型分析珠三角碳排放影响因素，并依据广东省发展目标提出8种预测方案。最后运用系统动力学对2021—2035年不同政策方案下的珠三角碳排放趋势进行动态预测。结果表明：1）既定政策情形下，珠三角2030年可实现碳达峰；2）一定的政策干预可以减少碳排放，但若政府放松管理，将无法实现碳达峰；3）实行单一减排政策情景下，碳达峰时间集中于2025—2030年；4）多种碳减排政策协调控制情境下可在2024年实现碳达峰，优于单一碳减排政策。结合空间杜宾模型分析与碳排放预测结果，提出增加城市绿化、重视政策间协调配合与城市间空间联系、优化产业结构、完善电力系统、加强居民绿色消费意识等政策建议，将有助于碳达峰的实现。
- 碳达峰 /
- 珠三角城市群 /
- 空间杜宾模型 /
- STIRPAT模型 /
- 系统动力学
Abstract: According to the data from 2000 to 2020, the investigation employed the emission coefficient method provided by IPCC to estimate the total annual carbon emissions of the Pearl River Delta during the study period. Using the STIRPAT model, the influencing factors were categorized into seven dimensions. When analyzing the factors that affected the carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta, the spatial Dubin model was applied, and eight forecast scenarios were formulated depending on the development goals proposed by Guangdong province. For the prediction of the trend of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta, this paper dynamically forecast the situation under different policy plans from 2021 to 2035 on the basis of system dynamics. The research results were as follows:1) under the established policy scenarios, the total carbon emission of the Pearl River Delta would reach its peak in 2030; 2) certain policy interventions could reduce carbon emission, in other words, to achieve carbon peak was inseparable from the active participation of government rather than relaxed management; 3) in the context of single emission reduction policy, the Pearl River Delta would realize the carbon peak in 2025-2030 under most prediction scenarios; 4) the coordinated control of multiple carbon emission reduction policies could accomplish carbon peak in 2024, better than single carbon emission reduction policy. In addition, relying on the consequence of the spatial Dubin model and carbon emission prediction, targeted policy recommendations such as increasing urban greening, paying attention to inter-city spatial connection and policy coordination, optimizing industrial structure, improving power system and strengthening residents' awareness of green consumption were proposed, which would help to achieve carbon peaking.
- carbon peaking /
- Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration /
- spatial Dubin model /
- STIRPAT model /
- system dynamics

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