基于LMDI-SD模型的山东省建筑业碳排放影响因素与情景预测

王志强; 李可慧; 任金哥; 张琪

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

基于LMDI-SD模型的山东省建筑业碳排放影响因素与情景预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

青岛理工大学管理工程学院, 山东青岛 266000

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目"参与方个体视角下大型工程项目融资风险动态评价体系研究"（71471094）；山东省重点研发计划（软科学项目）一般项目"区域创新背景下山东地区被动式住宅政府激励机制研究"（2019RKB01459）

详细信息

作者简介:
王志强(1976-),男,教授,主要研究方向为新型建筑工业化项目管理。wzq3993@163.com

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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-01-08
- 网络出版日期: 2023-12-26

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL

School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266000, China

摘要

摘要: 以山东省建筑业为研究对象，通过对数平均迪氏指数分解（LMDI）模型分析碳排放相关影响因素，构建系统动力学模型，通过调控GDP增长率、建材占比和碳交易政策因素，预测4种情景对碳排放的影响。结果表明：1）经济收益效应和间接碳排放强度是影响山东省建筑业碳排放的主要驱动因素；2）单一政策仿真情景下，山东省建筑业碳排放总量增长趋势逐年变缓，相比经济增速和碳交易政策调整，建材结构改善的减排贡献度更高；3）在综合调控方案下，2030年的山东省建筑业碳排放强度相比2006年下降64.34%，可达到国家2030年碳排放强度下降60%的目标。
- 山东省建筑业 /
- LMDI /
- SD /
- 碳排放 /
- 影响因素 /
- 情景预测
Abstract: Taking the construction industry of Shandong Province as the research object, this paper analyzes the relevant influencing factors of carbon emissions through the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model, builds a system dynamics model, and predicts the impact of four different scenarios on carbon emissions by regulating GDP growth rate, the proportions of building materials and carbon trading policy. The results show that:1) the economic benefit effect and indirect carbon emission intensity are the main driving factors affecting the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province. 2) Under the single policy simulation scenario, the growth trend of the total carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province has slowed down year by year. Compared with the economic growth and carbon trading policy adjustment, the contribution of the improvement of the building materials structure to the emission reduction is higher. 3) Under the comprehensive regulation and control plan, the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry of Shandong Province in 2030 will decrease by 64.34% compared with 2006, which reaches the national goal of reducing the carbon emission intensity by 60% in 2030.
- construction industry of Shandong Province /
- LMDI /
- SD /
- carbon emissions /
- influencing factor /
- scenario forecast

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