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ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSION CHARACTERISTICS AND CARBON REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF CAMPUS BUILDING OPERATION BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL
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摘要: 为发挥高校在碳中和行动中的先导作用，率先实现校园碳中和，基于能源监控中心数据，测算2017—2021年江西某高校建筑运行阶段碳排放，构建校园建筑运行碳排放STIRPAT模型，结合情景分析法设定基准、低碳和超低碳3种发展情景，预测2022—2035年校园建筑运行碳排放的变化趋势，并提出针对性的减碳建议。结果表明：校园建筑碳排放呈现显著的季节性特征，宿舍碳排放是校园建筑运营阶段碳排放的主要来源，以功能性碳排放为主；能源结构和能耗强度对碳排放的影响较大，用能人数和建筑面积的影响相对较小；在低碳情景下和超低碳情景下，均能在2030年前实现碳达峰。Abstract: In order to promote the leading role of campus in carbon neutralization action and take the lead in realizing campus carbon neutralization, based on the data of energy monitoring center, the carbon emission of a university building in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 was measured, the STIRPAT model of carbon emission of campus building operation was constructed, and three scenarios of baseline scenarios, low carbon scenarios and ultra-low carbon scenarios were set by scenario analysis method, to forecast the changing trend of carbon emission of campus building operation phase from 2022 to 2035, and targeted carbon reduction suggestions were put forward. Results showed that the carbon emissions of campus buildings showed significant seasonal characteristics. Dormitory carbon emissions were the main source of carbon emissions in the operation stage of campus buildings, mainly functional carbon emissions. Energy structure and energy consumption intensity had a greater impact on carbon emissions, while the number of energy users and building area had a relatively smaller impact. Under both low-carbon scenario and ultra-low-carbon scenario, the carbon peak in the campus can all be achieved before 2030.
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Key words:
- campus building /
- operation phase /
- STIRPAT model /
- scenario analysis /
- carbon reduction potential
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1. 刘志渊，冯俊，肖玉麒，龚顺明，平奕炜，肖绪文. 建筑工程建造碳计量方法研究与应用. 上海建设科技. 2024(05): 1-4 . 
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