西部地区交通碳排放的驱动因素与脱钩效应分析

王智琦; 李建国; 彭彬彬; 向万里

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202310025

西部地区交通碳排放的驱动因素与脱钩效应分析

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310025

王智琦¹,
李建国^2,3,
彭彬彬^4,5,
向万里^1,3,6, ,

1. 兰州交通大学交通运输学院, 兰州 730070;
2. 中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司货运部, 兰州 730000;
3. 兰州交通大学高原铁路运输智慧管控铁路行业重点实验室, 兰州 730070;
4. 天津大学管理与经济学部, 天津 300072;
5. 天津大学国家储能技术产教融合创新平台, 天津 300072;
6. 兰州交通大学现代物流研究所, 兰州 730070

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金（62262037）；中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司科技开发项目（LZJKY2022060-1，LZJKY2023006-1，LZJKY2023010-1）；中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技开发项目（N2020X015）。

详细信息

作者简介:
王智琦(1998-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为交通运输经济。wzq13108@163.com

通讯作者:
向万里(1978-),男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。xiangwl@mail.lzjtu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-06-19
- 网络出版日期: 2023-12-26

DRIVING FACTORS AND DECOUPLING EFFECT ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORTATION CARBON EMISSIONS IN WESTERN CHINA

WANG Zhiqi¹,
LI Jianguo^2,3,
PENG Binbin^4,5,
XIANG Wanli^{1,3,6
, ,}

1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Freight Department, China Railway Lanzhou Group Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730000, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Railway Industry on Plateau Railway Transportation Intelligent Management and Control, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
4. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
5. National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
6. Institute of Modern Logistics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

摘要

摘要: 西部地区是“丝绸之路经济带”的重要节点，具有显著的交通运输地位和巨大的交通碳减排压力。深入研究西部地区的交通碳排放问题具有重要意义。首先，基于2000—2019年西部地区交通运输行业省级面板数据，使用“自上而下”法核算交通碳排放量，并运用GIS软件对其时空特征进行分析；其次，采用LMDI分解法对交通碳排放影响因素及作用进行探究；最后，构建Tapio脱钩模型，分析西部地区交通碳排放与交通运输行业经济发展的脱钩关系。结果表明：2000—2019年，西部地区交通碳排放总量呈上升趋势，增长了约4.6倍，而上升速度总体有所下降，交通碳排放量最高的省份逐渐向西南地区偏移，四川累计增加交通碳排放量位居西部地区首位，高达2414.85万t CO₂。经济规模是促进西部地区交通碳排放增长的主导因素，对交通碳排放的累计贡献率为87.9%，碳排放因子对其贡献最小，累计贡献率仅为4.4%。单耗水平和运输强度对交通碳排放的影响具有异质性，产业结构对交通碳排放整体上起抑制作用。此外西部地区交通运输行业的整体发展方向趋向于低碳化，大多数省市的交通碳排放与交通运输行业经济发展之间经历了从扩张负脱钩到扩张连接，再到弱脱钩的趋势。基于此，建议制定差异化交通碳减排路径方案，重点防范资源型地区的高碳排倾向，加强对西部地区交通运输行业碳排放的定期监测和考评。
- 交通运输行业 /
- 碳排放 /
- 西部地区 /
- LMDI分解 /
- Tapio脱钩模型
Abstract: The western region of China is a vital node of the "Silk Road Economic Belt", with significant transportation status and huge pressure on transportation carbon emissions reduction. It is of great significance to deeply study the transportation carbon emission problem in the western region. Firstly, based on the provincial panel data of the transportation industry in the western region from 2000 to 2019, the top-down method was used to calculate transportation carbon emissions, and the spatial and temporal characteristics were described and analyzed by GIS software. Secondly, the LMDI decomposition method was used to explore the influencing factors and effects of transportation carbon emissions. Finally, the Tapio decoupling model was constructed to analyze the decoupling relationship between transportation carbon emissions and the economic development of the transportation industry in the western region. The results showed that:from 2000 to 2019, the total transportation carbon emissions in the western region showed an upward trend, increasing by about 4.6 times, while the overall growth rate decreased. The provinces with the highest transportation carbon emissions were gradually shifting to the southwestern region, and the cumulative increase of transportation carbon emissions in Sichuan ranked first in the western region, reaching 24.1485 million tons of CO₂. Economic scale was the leading factor in promoting the growth of transportation carbon emissions in the western region, and the cumulative contribution rate of transportation carbon emissions was 87.9%, while the carbon emission factor contributes the least, with a cumulative contribution rate of only 4.4%. The energy consumption per unit turnover effect and transportation intensity on transportation carbon emissions were heterogeneous, and the industrial structure had an overall inhibitory effect on transportation carbon emissions. In addition, the overall development direction of the transportation industry in the western region tends to be low carbonization, and transportation carbon emissions and economic development of transportation industry in most provinces has experienced a trend from negative decoupling to expansion connection, and then to weak decoupling. Based on this, it was suggested to formulate a differentiated transportation carbon emission reduction path plan scheme, focus on preventing high carbon emission tendencies in resource-based areas, and strengthen regular monitoring and evaluation of carbon emissions in the transportation industry in the western region.
- transportation industry /
- carbon emissions /
- western region of China /
- LMDI decomposition /
- Tapio decoupling model

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