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GROUNDWATER POLLUTION DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND RISK SCREENING
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摘要: 针对传统污染地块地下水污染风险评价忽略污染扩散风险的问题,以湖南某地下水污染地块及周边为研究区,开展风险评估和动态变化趋势评估。采用定量-定性结合的方式,通过指标筛选和确定,建立了耦合数值模拟预测和风险筛查静态风险评估的污染地块地下水污染动态风险评估方法。模拟预测结果表明,地块土壤和地下水中的污染物随时间逐渐向下游扩散,地下水中Cr(Ⅵ)在38 d时浓度达到最大值1239.5 mg/L,585 d时迁移至河流,917 d时地下水污染羽面积达到最大。基于风险筛查的地下水污染风险评估,和基于数值模拟和风险筛查的地下水污染动态风险2种方法计算得到的地块地下水污染风险总分分别为76.2和72.4,风险分级均为高风险地块,但后者略低于前者,表明针对污染物在包气带和饱水带中的迁移情况,定性分析结果相比定量分析结果可能趋于保守。动态风险评估结果显示,该地块始终为高风险地块,地下水污染风险先上升再下降,在500~700 d时达到最高风险95.2分。建议污染地块应尽快开展地下水风险管控或修复,避免污染扩散导致风险进一步增大。Abstract: Since the traditional groundwater risk assessment of contaminated sites ignored the risk of pollution spreading risk, a groundwater contaminated site and its surroundings in Hunan were selected as the research area for groundwater pollution dynamic risk assessment and trend prediction. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was used to establish a dynamic assessment method based on numerical simulation and risk screening through index screening and determination. The simulation prediction shows that the pollutants in the soil and groundwater of the site gradually diffuse downstream over time. The concentration of Cr(Ⅵ) in groundwater reaches a maximum of 1239.5 mg/L on the 38th day. Pollutants migrate to the river on the 585 day, and the groundwater pollution plume reaches its maximum on the 917th day. The total groundwater pollution risk scores of the site calculated by the two methods are 76.2 and 72.4, both belong to high risks, indicating that qualitative analysis of migration in the vadose zone and the water-saturated zone may tend to be conservative compared to quantitative analysis. The dynamic risk assessment results show that the site is always at high-risk throughout its lifetime, and the groundwater pollution risk first rises and then declines, reaching the highest risk of 95.2 points from the 500th day to the 700th day. It is suggested that groundwater risk control or restoration should be carried out to avoid greater risk.
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