疫情和垃圾分类情景对生活垃圾清运量的影响及模型预测

杨梦霞; 秦伟凯; 沈鹏飞; 陈小欢; 杨露露; 李永刚; 张乐川; 高语晨; 蒋建国

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

疫情和垃圾分类情景对生活垃圾清运量的影响及模型预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

1. 中国铁工投资建设集团有限公司, 北京 101300;
2. 中国中铁生态环境专业研发中心, 上海 200331;
3. 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084;
4. 中铁水务集团有限公司, 西安 710000

详细信息

作者简介:
杨梦霞（1990—），女，硕士，主要研究方向为固体废弃物处理处置及资源化。ymxxia@126.com

通讯作者:
蒋建国（1979—），男，教授，主要研究方向为固体废弃物处理与资源化。jianguoj@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-08-02
- 录用日期: 2024-09-18
- 修回日期: 2024-09-04

Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model

1. China Iron Construction & Investment Construction Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 101300, China;
2. Environment R&D Center of China Iron Construction & Investment Construction Group, Shanghai 200331, China;
3. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
4. China Railway Water Group Co., Ltd., Xi'an 710000, China

摘要

摘要: 近年来，生活垃圾强制分类制度在我国陆续推行，分类制度带来的影响与现有市政环卫体系的矛盾逐步显现。为分析分类制度对垃圾清运量的影响，基于系统动力学理论，运用VENSIM软件分析影响城市生活垃圾产生量的关键因素，绘制因果回路图，建立存量流量模型，预测了疫情及生活垃圾强制分类的不同社会情景下垃圾清运量的发展趋势。以北京市和深圳市为例，基于2010—2020年数据，并在无疫情不分类、常规基准、减量情景和缓慢恢复4个情景下，对2021—2035年生活垃圾清运情况进行预测，研究表明疫情和垃圾分类制度等社会事件因素对人均产生量（以垃圾产生人口折算）和总清运量有显著的减量效果。延续现行分类制度时，北京市和深圳市垃圾清运量将于2035年分别达到1227.51 万t、 1204.33 万t，比无分类制度情景下的对应值低12.9%和17.5%。
- 生活垃圾 /
- 疫情 /
- 垃圾分类 /
- 系统动力学 /
- 清运量预测 /
- 仿真模拟
Abstract: In recent years，a compulsory domestic waste classification system has been implemented in China， and conflicts between this new system and the existing municipal sanitation system have begun to emerge. In order to analyze the impact of waste classification on municipal solid waste collection volume， based on the system dynamics theory， VENSIM software was used to analyze the key factors affecting the production volume of municipal solid waste， draw a causal loop diagram， establish a stock flow model， and predict collection trends under different social scenarios， including epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies. Using Beijing and Shenzhen as representative cities from northern and southern China respectively， this study analyzed the data from 2010 to 2020， and projected municipal solid waste collection trends for 2021 to 2035 under four scenarios：no-pandemic with no waste classification， business-as-usual baseline， waste reduction， and slow recovery. The results showed that the epidemic and social factors such as pandemic containment measures and waste classification policies had a significant reduction effect on both per capita generation （adjusted by waste-producing population） and total collection volume. Under the waste reduction scenario， measures such as increasing waste disposal fees and promoting pre-processed vegetables are projected to reduce the annual per capita waste production in Beijing and Shenzhen by 16.3% and 17.8% respectively by 2025， with cumulative reductions of 11.2% and 24.0% over the following decade. If the current classification system is maintained， municipal solid waste collection volumes in Beijing and Shenzhen will reach 12.2751 and 12.0433 million tons in 2035， respectively， representing reductions of 12.9% and 17.5% compared to the no-classification scenario.
- municipal solid waste /
- epidemic /
- waste classification /
- system dynamics /
- waste collection volume projection /
- simulation modeling

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