区域多尺度碳排放驱动力及异质性分析：以江西省为例

朱淑瑛; 张哲; 张立; 范敏; 谢运生; 蔡博峰; 张泽宸; 王金南

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202507023

区域多尺度碳排放驱动力及异质性分析：以江西省为例

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202507023

1. 生态环境部环境规划院碳达峰碳中和研究中心, 北京 100012;
2. 江苏大学环境与安全工程学院, 江苏镇江 212013;
3. 江西省科学院能源研究所, 南昌 330029

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目“碳达峰、碳中和区域协同路径优化研究”（72140004）

详细信息

作者简介:
朱淑瑛（1996—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为能源和产业转型研究。zhusy@caep.org.cn

通讯作者:
张泽宸（1991—），男，硕士研究生，助理研究员，研究方向为双碳战略研究。zhangzc@caep.org.cn

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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-05-24
- 录用日期: 2025-08-20
- 修回日期: 2025-07-01
- 网络出版日期: 2025-09-11

Multi-scale driving force and its heterogeneity analysis of regional low-carbon transformation: a case study of Jiangxi province

1. Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Center, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
2. School of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China;
3. Energy Research Institute of Jiangxi Academy of Sciences, Nanchang 330029, China

摘要

摘要: 探究省级二氧化碳（CO₂）排放驱动因素及其城市异质性，对我国内陆省份高质量转型具有重要意义。以江西省为例，分析江西省及其各城市2005—2020年CO₂的时空演化趋势，基于LMDI模型与Tapio脱钩模型，识别省级碳排放变化的重点驱动因素，进一步分析城市发展的异质性对省级碳排放的影响，深刻剖析内陆生态大省未来的发展机遇与潜力。结果表明：1）经济发展是江西省碳排放量增长的决定因素，而能源强度变化是江西省碳排放最主要的促降因素；2）2005—2020年，江西省经济发展与碳排放水平变化逐渐剥离，然而，江西省仍保持“相对脱钩”状态，未来应进一步在“经济-排放”关系方面努力；3）江西省各城市碳排放驱动分解结果存在较强异质性，萍乡市和吉安市在保持经济高增速的同时，碳排放增量较低，相关经验值得借鉴。研究发现城市层面的碳排放驱动因素分解，能够更准确识别城市碳排放变化驱动关键因素，为管理决策提供参考。
- 碳排放 /
- LMDI /
- 脱钩 /
- 江西省 /
- 城市级
Abstract: Studying the driving factors of provincial carbon dioxide emissions and their urban heterogeneity is of great significance for the high-quality transformation of China’s inland provinces. Taking Jiangxi as an example， we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution trend of its carbon dioxide and various cities from 2005 to 2020. Based on the LMDI model and the Tapio decoupling model， we identified the key driving factors of provincial carbon emissions changes， further analyzed the impact of heterogeneity in urban development on provincial carbon emissions， and conducted a deep analysis on the future development opportunities and potential of China’s inland ecological provinces. The research results indicate that： 1） economic development is the determining factor for the growth of carbon emissions in Jiangxi， and changes in energy intensity are the main driving factor for reducing carbon emissions in Jiangxi. 2） from 2005 to 2020， the economic development gradually separated from the changes in carbon emissions levels in Jiangxi. However， Jiangxi still maintained a "relative decoupling" state， and should further strive in the economic-emissions relationship. 3） there is strong heterogeneity in the decomposition results of carbon emissions driven by various cities in Jiangxi. Pingxiang City and Ji'an City have maintained high economic growth while having low carbon emission increments， and their experiences are worth learning from. This research has found that decomposing the driving factors of carbon emissions at the urban level can more accurately identify the key factors driving the changes in urban carbon emissions， providing a reference for management decisions.
- carbon emissions /
- LMDI /
- decoupling /
- Jiangxi Province /
- city level

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