基于环境风险的宁夏回族自治区碳封存场地源汇匹配研究

杨凌雪; 许晓艺; 马晶; 杨川枫; 王楠; 程国强; 刘桂臻; 李凤洋; 虎亭; 许宗红; 景萌; 李琦

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202510029

基于环境风险的宁夏回族自治区碳封存场地源汇匹配研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202510029

1. 宁夏回族自治区水文环境地质调查院, 银川 750011;
2. 中国科学院武汉岩土力学研究所岩土力学与工程国家重点实验室, 武汉 430071

基金项目:

湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目“二氧化碳地质利用与封存机理和安全保障技术”（2021CFA030）

详细信息

作者简介:
杨凌雪（1984—），男，高级工程师，主要研究方向为水工环地质。a8-xue1148@163.com

通讯作者:
许晓艺（1997—），女，工程师，主要研究方向为CCUS技术。xuxiaoyi0924@126.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-09-20
- 录用日期: 2023-11-29
- 修回日期: 2023-11-02
- 网络出版日期: 2025-12-03
- 刊出日期: 2025-10-01

Research on source-sink matching of carbon storage sites in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region based on environmental risks

1. Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750011, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China

摘要

摘要: 二氧化碳（CO₂）地质封存是实现碳中和目标愿景不可或缺的关键技术，也是实现化石能源CO₂近零排放的重要举措。当前，CO₂地质封存正面对着环境安全性不确定的突出问题，因此，基于环境代价最低的角度，部署CO₂地质封存优先发展战略，是决策者关心的核心问题。宁夏回族自治区当前的化石能源消费占比、碳强度及人均碳排放均位于全国前列，开展宁夏CO₂地质封存环境优化选址研究和评价，有助于为宁夏发展CCUS技术提供重要参考。全面系统地甄选了生态和环境指标，考虑禁止性要素及显限制性要素，构建宁夏CO₂地质封存环境优化选址的评价指标体系及评价模型，由各指标因子分级的最小值确定CO₂地质封存的环境适宜性，并基于最小成本路径分析方法（LCPA）对宁夏排放源和封存汇进行了点对点源汇匹配评价。适宜性评价结果显示，鄂尔多斯盆地CO₂地质封存的环境适宜性程度最高，较适宜及适宜面积达38.8%以上；六盘山盆地适宜性次之，较适宜及适宜面积约占6.0%；银川盆地适宜性较差，不适宜面积约占92.5%。源汇匹配结果显示，考虑不同环境适宜性的匹配结果略有差异，但鄂尔多斯盆地的源汇匹配条件整体较好。
- 碳中和 /
- CCUS /
- 环境优化 /
- 选址评价 /
- 源汇匹配 /
- CO₂地质封存
Abstract: Geological carbon dioxide （CO₂） storage， as an indispensable key technology for realizing carbon neutrality goals， enables near-zero emissions of CO₂ from fossil fuel utilization. However， the prominent issue for geological CO₂ storage is the uncertainty of environmental safety. From the perspective of minimizing environmental impacts， deploying a priority development strategy for geological CO₂ storage is a core issue of concern to decision-makers. The current proportion of fossil fuel consumption， carbon intensity， and per capita carbon emissions in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region are all among the top in the country. Conducting research and evaluation on the environmental optimization site selection of geological CO₂ storage in Ningxia will provide important references for the development of CCUS technology in Ningxia. This study comprehensively and systematically selected ecological and environmental indicators， took into account the prohibitive elements and obvious restrictive elements， and constructed an evaluation index system and model for environmental optimization site selection of CO₂ geological storage in Ningxia. The environmental suitability of geological CO₂ storage was determined based on the minimum values of each index factor. Additionally， the least-cost path analysis （LCPA） method was employed to assess point-to-point source-sink matching between CO₂ emission sources and geological storage sinks in Ningxia. The suitability evaluation results showed that the Ordos Basin exhibited the highest environmental suitability for geological CO₂ storage， with over 38.8% of its area classified as "more suitable" or "suitable"； the Liupan Mountain Basin ranked second in suitability， with 6.0% of its area classified as "more suitable" or "suitable"， while the Yinchuan Basin showed a poor degree of suitability， with 92.5% of its area deemed unsuitable. The source-sink matching results showed that there were minor variations when considering different environmental suitability levels， the overall matching conditions in the Ordos Basin were relatively favorable.
- carbon neutrality /
- CCUS /
- environmental optimization /
- site selection evaluation /
- source-sink matching /
- geological CO₂ storage

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