APPLICATION OF COMBINATION GREY MODEL IN CARBON EMISSIONS PREDICTION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

According to the Shandong Province industrial，construction and transportation energy consumption data from 2000 to 2012，carbon emissions were calculated，and using GM ( 1，1) model，Verhulst model and SCGM ( 1，1) c model，the combination forecast model was set up，and using the effective method the weight coefficient of combination forecast model was determined． The actual values of three carbon emission industries from 2000 to 2009 were taken as original data to predict carbon emissions form 2010 to 2012． The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of combined model is better than that of GM( 1，1) model，Verhulst model and SCGM( 1，1) c model． Further the carbon emissions of all industries in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2017 were also predicted，which could provide theoretic references for relevant departments to formulate policy for energy conservation and emissions reduction．