RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA

ZHANG Qin; FU Li-zhi

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

Volume 38 Issue 6

Aug. 2020

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ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

Citation:

ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

Citation:

ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

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RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

ZHANG Qin^1,2,
FU Li-zhi^{1,2
,
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1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;
2. Research Center for Soft Energy Science, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

Received Date: 2019-07-05

Abstract

Abstract

This study used the Weibull distribution model to analyze China's photovoltaics. Then the neural network model and the market supply A model were used to predict the installed capacity of PV and the amount of modules waste in China. In this paper, we divided PV modules into two phases according to different quality, and considered the four degradation scenarios to predict component scrap. Then we calculated the valuable materials and metal scrap in the components. The results showed that China's PV module will scrap out after 2025. In 2050, China's PV module will scrap up to 60.22 GW, and the accumulative quantity up to 673 GW. In four degradation scenariost, by 2050, typical precious metals will produce up to 3134.5 tons of Ag; the highest yield of rare metals will include 228.1 tons of Te, 463.4 tons of Cd, 58.5 tons of Ga, 29.8 tons of In; for toxic and harmful metals, 263.9 tons of Pb will be produced; and a maximum of 43735.4 tons of Si will be produce. By 2050, the cumulative total waste of PV module materials will reach the peak of 64423193.6 tons.
- photovoltaic module,
- waste prediction,
- weibull distribution,
- neural network

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References(31)

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