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Volume 38 Issue 11
Apr.  2021
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Article Navigation >  ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING  > 2020  >  38(11): 25-32
LV Chen, LI Yan-xia, YANG Nan, LIU Hao, LIU Zhong-liang. ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ON-ROAD VEHICLE GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(11): 25-32. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202011005
Citation: LV Chen, LI Yan-xia, YANG Nan, LIU Hao, LIU Zhong-liang. ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ON-ROAD VEHICLE GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(11): 25-32. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202011005
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ASSESSMENT AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ON-ROAD VEHICLE GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION: A CASE STUDY OF BEIJING

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202011005

  • College of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

  • Received Date: 2020-08-07
    Available Online: 2021-04-23
  • Publish Date: 2021-04-23
    Abstract
  • Based on the LEAP model (long-range energy alternatives planning system), this study evaluated the variation law of on-road vehicle greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions in the historical stage of Beijing (2000—2018), and developed five different scenarios to predict the development trend of vehicle stock, energy demand and GHGs emissions in the future (2019—2030). In addition, we explored the peaking year of vehicle GHG emissions of Beijing, as well as the optimal development path. The results showed that the vehicle stock would continue to increase in the future, but the average annual growth rate would reduce to 1.63%. Total vehicle GHGs emissions peaked in 2013 at 21758563 t CO2e, corresponding to the energy consumption of 306383 TJ. In all future scenarios, vehicle GHGs emissions would decline. Improving the fuel efficiency of motor vehicles was the best way to reduce emission when implementing single emission reduction measures. And ODS (optimal development scenario) that integrated the three emission reduction measures was the optimal development path.
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