QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION ON THE STATUS OF CO<sub>2</sub> EMISSIONS: PEAK PERIOD, PLATEAU PERIOD, AND DECLINE PERIOD

ZHANG Li; WAN Xin; JIANG Han-ying; LI Xuan; XU Shao-dong; CAI Bo-feng

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

Volume 39 Issue 10

Jan. 2022

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ZHANG Li, WAN Xin, JIANG Han-ying, LI Xuan, XU Shao-dong, CAI Bo-feng. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION ON THE STATUS OF CO2 EMISSIONS: PEAK PERIOD, PLATEAU PERIOD, AND DECLINE PERIOD[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2021, 39(10): 1-7. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

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ZHANG Li, WAN Xin, JIANG Han-ying, LI Xuan, XU Shao-dong, CAI Bo-feng. QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION ON THE STATUS OF CO₂ EMISSIONS: PEAK PERIOD, PLATEAU PERIOD, AND DECLINE PERIOD[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2021, 39(10): 1-7. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

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QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION ON THE STATUS OF CO₂ EMISSIONS: PEAK PERIOD, PLATEAU PERIOD, AND DECLINE PERIOD

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202110001

1. Center for Carbon Neutrality, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China;
2. Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles 90095, United States;
3. Low Carbon College, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 201306, China;
4. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100091, China;
5. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Received Date: 2021-06-01
Available Online: 2022-01-26

Abstract

Abstract

Based on mathematical statistics methods of Bootstrap sampling, we constructed an Evaluation model on the Status of CO₂ emissions (ESC). This paper selected the areas with a good statistical basis, used multi-source time series data from the authorities, and combined with the emission uncertainty by referring to the IPCC Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories to explore the CO₂ emission distribution and statistical parameters, which included the standard deviation and uncertainty of the emission. The statistical parameters were used as a quantitative criterion to determine the peak, plateau, and decline period of CO₂ emission and solve the calculation errors caused by statistical accounting. Based on the ESC model, the peak period was within 1% (0.9%~1.1%) of peak CO₂ emission. The plateau and decline period were evaluated based on the comparison between the annual decline rate and 2% (1.8%~2.2%). Once the annual decline rate after the CO₂ emission peak exceeded 2%, we assumed the CO₂ emission to be the decline period, otherwise the plateau period. Besides, we applied the ESC model to evaluate the periods of historical CO₂ emission for the European Union and the United States. The results showed that:the European Union reached the CO₂ emission peak in 1979, then entered the decline period from 1980 to 1983; the United States reached the CO₂ emission peak in 2007, then entered the decline period of CO₂ emission from 2008 to 2012; our model was reasonable on quantitative evaluation on the status of CO₂ emission peak. This study could provide reference value for quantitative evaluation on the status of CO₂ emission (including the peak, plateau, and decline period) for the country, region (province), or the city, provide sound support for studies on the pathway analysis and scenario simulation of CO₂ emission, and offer scientific evaluation reference for decision makers.
- CO₂,
- emission status,
- peak period,
- plateau period,
- decline period,
- quantitative evaluation

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References(44)

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