COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY

CENG Yi-chuan; CENG Hui-guo; YUAN Wei-hao; FENG Xiang-yu; LI Bao; WANG Hua

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

Volume 40 Issue 5

Jul. 2022

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CENG Yi-chuan, CENG Hui-guo, YUAN Wei-hao, FENG Xiang-yu, LI Bao, WANG Hua. COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2022, 40(5): 95-102,108. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

Citation:

CENG Yi-chuan, CENG Hui-guo, YUAN Wei-hao, FENG Xiang-yu, LI Bao, WANG Hua. COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2022, 40(5): 95-102,108. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

Citation:

CENG Yi-chuan, CENG Hui-guo, YUAN Wei-hao, FENG Xiang-yu, LI Bao, WANG Hua. COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2022, 40(5): 95-102,108. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

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COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY IN THE SEA-ENTRY CHANNELS OF YANGTZE ESTUARY

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202205014

1. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lake of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3. Construction Company, Guiyang High-Tech Holding Group Co., Ltd., Guiyang 550000, China;
4. Yangtze River Estuary Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, Hydrology Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Shanghai 200136, China

Received Date: 2021-05-07
Available Online: 2022-07-02

Abstract

Abstract

Taking the largest estuary in China as an example, regular monitoring was carried out at four major cross-sections, including Xuliujing, Qidonggang, Nangang and Beigang in Yangtze Estuary from 2004 to 2018. Water quality parameters such as permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen(NH₃-N) and total phosphorus(TP) were measured in water samples. A comprehensive analysis of the water quality at the cross-sections was conducted via the comprehensive water quality identification index(WQII) method; dissolved oxygen(DO) was selected as the response variable to establish stepwise regression equations and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(SARIMA) for each cross-section, and predictions were made from October to December 2018 to test the accuracy of the models and compare the applicability of the two models at each cross-section. The results showed that:1) based on the monthly data from 2004 to 2018, the average DO concentration at the representative cross-sections of the main sea-entry channels of the Yangtze Estuary was 8.73 mg/L; spatially, the DO concentration in the Yangtze Estuary showed a pattern that Xuliujing was the highest and the northern branch was higher than the southern branch. 2) based on the comprehensive water quality marker index, the sections, water quality was in the order of Qidonggang(3.110)>Xuliujing(3.120)>Beigang(3.220)>Nangang(3.420);3) when predicting DO, the SARIMA model was more accurate than the stepwise regression equation in predicting DO at the Xuliujing, Qidonggang and Beigang section, while the stepwise regression equation performed better at the Nangang section.
- Yangtze Estuary,
- sea-entry channel,
- WQII method,
- SARIMA model,
- stepwise regression

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References(36)

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