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中国光伏组件报废量的预测

张钦 傅丽芝

张钦, 傅丽芝. 中国光伏组件报废量的预测[J]. 环境工程, 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
引用本文: 张钦, 傅丽芝. 中国光伏组件报废量的预测[J]. 环境工程, 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
Citation: ZHANG Qin, FU Li-zhi. RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(6): 214-220. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035

中国光伏组件报废量的预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202006035
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金重点项目(71834003)。

国家自然科学基金面上项目(71774081)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    张钦(1963-),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为新能源产业管理与政策。qin.zhang@163.com

    通讯作者:

    傅丽芝(1994-),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为新能源产业管理与政策。fulizhi07@163.com

RESEARCH ON PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES WASTE PREDICTION IN CHINA

  • 摘要: 在采用威布尔分布模型分析光伏组件使用寿命分布情况的基础上,使用神经网络模型和市场供给A模型分别对中国光伏装机容量和组件报废量进行预测。将光伏组件按照不同质量分成2阶段,考虑不同退化情景预测组件报废量,并计算组件中有价值材料和金属报废量。预测结果表明:2025年后中国光伏组件报废量爆发,到2050年,中国光伏组件报废量最高可达60.22 GW,累计报废最高可达673 GW。在4种退化情景下,到2050年,典型贵金属方面最高产生3134.5 t的Ag;稀有金属方面最高产生228.1 t的Te;463.4 t的Cd,58.5 t的Ga,29.8 t的In;有毒有害金属方面最高产生263.9 t的Pb;Si最高产生量43735.4 t。到2050年,光伏组件材料累积废弃总量最高可达64623193.6 t。
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  • 收稿日期:  2019-07-05

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