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基于CEEMD-BiGRU模型的徐州市大气污染物浓度预测

吴子伯 崔云霞 曹炜琦 彭欣 赵修齐治蓁

吴子伯, 崔云霞, 曹炜琦, 彭欣, 赵修齐治蓁. 基于CEEMD-BiGRU模型的徐州市大气污染物浓度预测[J]. 环境工程, 2022, 40(9): 9-18. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202209002
引用本文: 吴子伯, 崔云霞, 曹炜琦, 彭欣, 赵修齐治蓁. 基于CEEMD-BiGRU模型的徐州市大气污染物浓度预测[J]. 环境工程, 2022, 40(9): 9-18. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202209002
WU Zi-bo, CUI Yun-xia, CAO Wei-qi, PENG Xin, ZHAO Xiu-qi-zhi-zhen. PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS IN XUZHOU BASED ON CEEMD-BiGRU MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2022, 40(9): 9-18. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202209002
Citation: WU Zi-bo, CUI Yun-xia, CAO Wei-qi, PENG Xin, ZHAO Xiu-qi-zhi-zhen. PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS IN XUZHOU BASED ON CEEMD-BiGRU MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2022, 40(9): 9-18. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202209002

基于CEEMD-BiGRU模型的徐州市大气污染物浓度预测

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202209002
详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴子伯(1996-),男,硕士,主要研究方向为环境规划与管理。374859325@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    崔云霞(1971-),教授,主要研究方向为环境规划与管理。09379@njnu.edu.cn

PREDICTION OF AIR POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS IN XUZHOU BASED ON CEEMD-BiGRU MODEL

  • 摘要: 目前大气污染物对于地区经济以及人体健康的影响不容忽视。选取徐州市2016-01-01—2021-01-24大气污染物和气象要素数据,针对大气污染物浓度波动性强等特点,运用互补集成经验模态分解(CEEMD)将污染物数据分解为本征模态分量,提取出原始数据的各项特征,再对分解出的各本征模态分量构建双向门控循环单元模型(BiGRU),通过双向循环训练,学习各分量的特征趋势并获得最优训练参数,将输出结果重构,得到最终的预测值。结果表明:与BiGRU、BP模型相比,CEEMD-BiGRU模型预测各项大气污染物的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别下降15%、20%和2百分点以上,预测精度有较大提升。在此基础上,利用CEEMD-BiGRU模型预测后一时间段残差,以修正原预测值,得到大气污染物预测区间上界,进一步扩展模型的适用性。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-01-21
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-11-09

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