中国生物基经济碳足迹核算与影响因素分析

王思婧; 陈斌; 代敏; 谢泓毅; 张丁凡; 孙明星; 王玉涛

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202508022

中国生物基经济碳足迹核算与影响因素分析

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202508022

王思婧¹,
陈斌¹,
代敏¹,
谢泓毅¹,
张丁凡¹,
孙明星²,
王玉涛^1,3,4, ,

1. 复旦大学环境科学与工程系, 上海 200438;
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
3. 复旦大学丁铎尔中心, 上海 200438;
4. 上海能源与碳中和研究院, 上海 200438

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作研究项目（72061147003）；国家自然科学家基金青年项目（C类）（52100210）

详细信息

作者简介:
王思婧（1999—），女，博士研究生，主要研究方向为生物基经济与可持续性。sijingwang21@m.fudan.edu.cn

通讯作者:
王玉涛（1984—），男，博士，教授，主要研究方向为环境系统工程。yutaowang@fudan.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-05-30
- 录用日期: 2025-07-21
- 修回日期: 2025-06-21

Carbon footprint accounting and impact factor analysis of China’s bioeconomy

1. Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
3. Fudan Tyndall Center, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China;
4. Shanghai Institute for Energy and Carbon Neutrality Strategy, Shanghai 200438, China

摘要

摘要: “双碳”目标下，系统评估中国生物基经济碳足迹对于推动可持续发展至关重要。采用环境扩展的多区域投入产出模型（EE-MRIO），基于EXIOBASE v3.9.6数据库，系统性核算并分析了2000—2022年中国生物基经济由最终消费驱动的全球碳足迹及其时空演变与结构特征。研究发现：中国生物基经济由最终消费驱动的全球碳足迹总量巨大，并呈波动上升趋势，尽管本土碳足迹长期占据主导地位，但进口碳足迹同期显著增长，表明环境责任外溢效应日益增强。全球碳足迹构成上，初级生物质资源始终是最大来源，占比长期超60%，生物能源与废弃物资源化、相关生物基服务业贡献亦突出。本土碳排放结构深刻转型，热点从上游“种养型”加速向下游“制造+能源（含资源化利用）型”转移，新兴生物基化学品影响力持续增强，生物燃料则表现出与政策高度相关的显著波动。进口碳足迹的来源呈现显著的地域集中性，即资源密集型、碳排放强度较高的上游生产环节主要由发展中国家承担，发达国家更多集中于高附加值的加工与畜牧产品生产环节。该研究为中国生物基经济绿色转型、碳核算标准制定及全球供应链协同治理提供了科学支撑。
- 生物基经济 /
- 碳足迹 /
- 投入产出分析 /
- 环境外溢 /
- 消费驱动
Abstract: Under the Dual Carbon Goals， systematically assessing the carbon footprint of China's bioeconomy is crucial for promoting sustainable development. This study employed an Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output （EE-MRIO） model， based on the EXIOBASE v3.9.6 database， to systematically analyze the global carbon footprint driven by China's final consumption in its bioeconomy from 2000 to 2022， including its spatio-temporal evolution and structural characteristics. The study found that the total global carbon footprint driven by China's final consumption in its bioeconomy is substantial and shows a fluctuating upward trend. Although the domestic carbon footprint has long dominated， the import carbon footprint significantly increased during the same period， indicating a growing environmental responsibility spillover effect. In terms of global carbon footprint composition， primary biotic resources have consistently been the largest source， accounting for over 60% in the long term. Bioenergy and waste valorization， along with related bio-based services， have also made prominent contributions. The domestic carbon emission structure has undergone a profound transformation. There has been an accelerated shift of hotspots from upstream sectors centered on agriculture and livestock to downstream sectors dominated by manufacturing and energy （including resource utilization）. The influence of emerging bio-based chemicals continues to grow， while biofuels show significant policy-related fluctuations. The sources of the import carbon footprint exhibit notable geographical concentration， meaning that resource-intensive， high-carbon-emission upstream production processes are mainly undertaken by developing countries， while developed countries focus more on high value-added processing and livestock product manufacturing. This study provides scientific support for the green transition of China's bioeconomy， the development of carbon accounting standards， and the coordinated governance of global supply chains.
- bioeconomy /
- carbon footprint /
- input-output analysis /
- environmental spillover /
- consumption-driven

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参考文献(31)

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