基于EEIO模型的水资源约束情景下中国各省域水碳关系研究

马梦瑶; 张文龙; 王新梓; 李轶; 孙红波

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202508023

基于EEIO模型的水资源约束情景下中国各省域水碳关系研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202508023

马梦瑶^1,2,
张文龙^1,2, ,,
王新梓^1,2,
李轶^1,2,
孙红波³

1. 河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 南京 210098;
2. 河海大学环境学院, 南京 210098;
3. 江苏水务投资有限公司, 南京 210000

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目“工业园区水-碳过程解析及其协同优化配置研究”（2023YFC3207001）

详细信息

作者简介:
马梦瑶（2000‒），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为节水减排与减污固碳。231305020059@hhu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
张文龙（1987‒），男，博士，教授，主要研究方向为水资源保护与生态修复。1223zhangwenlong@163.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-11-15
- 录用日期: 2025-01-05
- 修回日期: 2024-12-04

Study on water-carbon relations among provinces in China under water constraints scenarios based on EEIO model

MA Mengyao^1,2,
ZHANG Wenlong^{1,2
, ,},
WANG Xinzi^1,2,
LI Yi^1,2,
SUN Hongbo³

1. Key Laboratory for Integrated Regulation and Resources Development of Shallow Lakes of Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3. Jiangsu Water Investment Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210000, China

摘要

摘要: 如何将有限的水资源在不同省份和部门中合理分配并减少碳排放，是实现节水降碳协同发展的关键。基于此，设置了基准情景、用水强度约束情景和用水压力约束情景，改进环境拓展的投入产出模型，量化不同水资源约束情景对区域碳排放的影响情况，揭示了水资源约束下不同省份的水碳作用关系。结果表明：在生产侧碳排放方面，水资源约束通过影响部门生产活动，导致全国生产侧碳排放下降0.1%~15.5%，其中，西北地区万元经济损失碳减排量相对较高，应作为主要的降碳地区；在消费侧碳排放方面，水资源约束将主要影响地区间贸易活动，从而实现消费侧碳减排1.5%~3.1%；水资源约束通过区域间贸易网络对区域的碳转移产生影响，改变区域间隐含碳的净转移方向，使得碳排放压力从水资源匮乏的西部、北部地区向水资源相对充足的南部地区转移，从而减缓西部和北部地区的碳排放压力。以研究结果作为实践参考，适宜政策的制定和协同管理是实现节水降碳目标的重要环节，需首先识别重点区域和潜力区域，制定因地制宜、差异化的地区节水降碳政策与目标，以促进节水降碳协同，同时助力经济发展。
- 水资源约束 /
- 碳减排 /
- 水碳关系 /
- 投入产出 /
- 情景分析
Abstract: The judicious distribution of finite water resources across various provinces and sectors， in conjunction with the mitigation of carbon emissions， is crucial for the synergistic advancement of water conservation and carbon reduction. This research established three distinct scenarios： a baseline scenario， a water intensity constraint scenario， and a water stress constraint scenario. By improving and employing an environmentally extended input-output model， this study quantified the impact of diverse water resource constraints on regional carbon emissions， thereby elucidating the intricate water-carbon interaction dynamics among different provinces under the auspices of water resource limitations.The findings of this study revealed that water resource constraints exerted a significant influence on production-based carbon emissions， leading to a nationwide reduction ranging from 0.1% to 15.5%. This reduction was attributed to the constraints' impact on sectoral production activities. Notably， the northwest region demonstratesd a comparatively higher reduction in carbon emissions per unit of economic loss， underscoring its potential as a key area for carbon reduction initiatives.In the realm of consumption-side carbon emissions， water resource constraints predominantly affected inter-regional trade activities. This influence diminishesd the responsibility borne by each province for the carbon emissions generated in other provinces， resulting in a reduction of consumption-based carbon emissions by 1.5% to 3.1%. Moreover， water resource constraints had a profound effect on regional carbon transfers through inter-regional trade networks. These constraints could alter the net direction of inter-regional embodied carbon transfers， effectively shifting the burden of carbon emissions from water-deficient western and northern regions to the relatively water-endowed southern regions. This shift showed the potential to mitigate the carbon emission pressure in the western and northern regions. Drawing upon the findings of this study as a practical reference， the development and coordinated implementation of appropriate policies are critical components in achieving the objectives of water conservation and carbon reduction. It is essential to first identify key and potential regions， and subsequently formulate differentiated regional policies for water conservation and carbon reduction based on local conditions. This approach will not only promote the synergy between water conservation and carbon reduction but also facilitate economic development.
- water constraint /
- carbon reduction /
- water-carbon relations /
- input-output /
- scenario analysis

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