某市废玻璃资源化潜力及其碳减排与经济效益评估

朱云; 唐进峰; 陈必鸣; 廖本华; 林嘉峻; 李燕妮; 吴海威; 张鸿郭

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202510007

某市废玻璃资源化潜力及其碳减排与经济效益评估

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202510007

1. 广州市城市管理技术研究中心, 广州 510180;
2. 广州大学环境科学与工程学院, 广州 510006

基金项目:

广东省科技计划项目（2023A0505050143）；广州市科技计划项目（202206010054）

详细信息

作者简介:
朱云（1978—），女，高级工程师，主要研究方向为城乡建设环境与资源保护。17826516@qq.com

通讯作者:
唐进峰（1984—），男，副教授，主要研究方向为固废资源化利用。jinfeng@gzhu.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-07-08
- 录用日期: 2025-09-01
- 修回日期: 2025-08-10
- 网络出版日期: 2025-12-03
- 刊出日期: 2025-10-01

Resource utilization potential of waste glass in a typical city of China and its carbon reduction and economic benefits evaluation

1. Guangzhou Municipal Management Technology Research Center, Guangzhou 510180, China;
2. College of Environmental Scie nce and Technology, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China

摘要

摘要: 生活垃圾中可回收物的资源化利用是推动城市绿色低碳转型的重要路径。在“双碳”目标背景下，提升可回收物的回收效率，对减轻城市废弃物处理压力，推动循环经济发展具有现实意义。然而目前多数城市在统计生活垃圾产出时仍以清运量为主要依据，但这一指标难以真实反映垃圾的实际产生水平。尤其是部分可回收物，往往在清运前便通过保洁人员、拾荒者或居民自主回收、丢弃等非正式渠道被分流，导致生活垃圾的实际产生量及其中可回收物的数量存在偏差。以我国某城市可回收物中废玻璃为研究对象，基于对其各行政区448户居民的入户追踪与问卷调查结果，采集生活垃圾前端数据，识别可回收物回收行为及资源化特征。在此基础上，采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法估算2023年该市家庭源废玻璃年产生量为25.10万t；结合XGBoost机器学习模型，预测该市全市废玻璃总产生量为61.83万t，其中，家庭源贡献量为24.72万t，模型结果与实测高度吻合。通过模型进一步计算，该年度碳减排潜力和经济效益潜力分别为4.47万~15.09万t和-460万~2，800万美元。研究表明，废玻璃的资源化回收在碳减排和经济收益方面均展现出显著潜力，所构建的模型具备良好的科学性与适用性，为其他可回收物提供评估路径的可复制范式，也为城市固废管理优化与“双碳”目标的实现提供了决策依据。
- 家庭源可回收物 /
- 废玻璃资源化 /
- 蒙特卡罗模拟 /
- XGBoost模型 /
- 碳减排效益 /
- 经济效益
Abstract: The resource utilization of recyclables in household waste plays a vital role in promoting urban green and low-carbon transformation. Under China’s “Dual Carbon” goals， improving the recovery efficiency of household-source recyclables is essential for reducing the burden on waste management and advancing the circular economy. However， in many cities， waste generation is still estimated based on collection volume， which often underestimates the actual quantity produced. This discrepancy arises because high-value recyclables are frequently diverted before formal collection through informal channels， such as community cleaners， scavengers， or direct reuse by residents. This study focused on waste glass as a key recyclable in a typical city in China. Through surveys on 448 households across all districts， front-end data on household waste generation and recycling behaviors were collected. Based on that， household waste glass generation in 2023 was estimated at 251，000 tons by Monte Carlo simulation， while the XGBoost model predicted total municipal generation at 618，300 tons， with 247，200 tons from households， closely aligning with the observed data. The estimated carbon reduction potential was 44，700~150，900 tons CO₂， and the economic benefit ranged from -4.6 million to 28 million USD. The results highlight the significant environmental and economic value of glass recycling. The proposed modeling framework is scientifically sound and practically applicable， offering a replicable method for assessing other recyclables and supporting urban solid waste management under China’s Dual Carbon Goals.
- household-source recyclables /
- waste glass resource recovery /
- Monte Carlo simulation /
- XGBoost model /
- carbon reduction benefit /
- economic benefits

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