基于CCER机制的中国海上风电行业减排潜力与经济可行性评估

李赟; 孙亚琪; 刘昕彤; 韩雅萱; 薛晓达

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202605015

基于CCER机制的中国海上风电行业减排潜力与经济可行性评估

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202605015

华北电力大学经济与管理学院, 北京 102206

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目“全球气候治理下中国温室气体自愿减排交易机制设计及其国际衔接风险防范研究”（23BJL006）

详细信息

作者简介:
李赟(1990—),女,副教授,主要研究方向为能源经济。55002462@ncepu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
薛晓达(1994—),男,讲师,主要研究方向为能源经济。xuexd@ncepu.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-08-17
- 网络出版日期: 2026-06-06

Assessment of emission reduction potential and economic feasibility for China's offshore wind power industry based on CCER mechanism

College of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

摘要

摘要: 全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场于2023年重启，以中国核证自愿减排量为交易标的，是国家碳市场的重要补充，首批将海上风电行业纳入交易范围。基于CCER方法学，研究评估海上风电行业的CO₂和大气污染物减排成效，并分析其经济可行性。首先，基于2020年和2025年情景，测算了中国海上风电行业CO₂及主要大气污染物减排量；其次，综合考虑CCER效益，评估了该行业的经济可行性。研究结果对我国海上风电行业政策规划具有4项重要启示：1）海上风电行业减排成效与经济环境贡献呈持续向好趋势，但在缺乏CCER补贴的情况下，2025年将面临亏损风险；2）沿海经济发达省份的海上风电产业展现出更大的发展潜力；3）从经济角度看，海上风电行业在2020年和2025年均可实现盈利；4）在各类大气污染物中，海上风电行业发展带来的NO_x 减排量最大，SO₂减排的协同效益最为显著。研究可为我国海上风电行业的战略规划和政策制定提供重要参考依据。
- CCER /
- 海上风电 /
- 减排潜力 /
- 经济性分析 /
- 碳排放 /
- 大气污染物排放
Abstract: In 2023， the National Greenhouse Gas （GHG） Voluntary Emission Reduction Trading Market in China was relaunched， using the China Certified Emission Reduction （CCER） as its trading unit. As an important supplement to the national carbon market， the CCER mechanism aims to further stimulate emission reduction efforts， especially within key sectors such as offshore wind power. This study systematically evaluated the effectiveness of CO₂ and major air pollutant emission reductions in China's offshore wind power industry， and examined its economic feasibility within the framework of the CCER policy. Specifically， this research adopted the CCER methodology， utilized both baseline scenario analysis and empirical data from 2020 and projections for 2025， and quantitatively estimated the reduction of CO₂ emissions as well as principal air pollutants （including particulate matter， sulfur dioxide， and nitrogen oxides） achieved by the offshore wind sector. The assessment process involved constructing detailed emission inventories for different coastal provinces， applying authoritative grid emission factors， and calculating corresponding emission reductions attributable to offshore wind power expansion. Then， this study comprehensively evaluated the economic viability of the industry by accounting for the levelized cost of electricity （LCOE）， additional revenues generated through CCER transactions， and the external environmental benefits associated with lower pollutant discharge. The analysis further considered the dynamic interplay between market-based carbon pricing and evolving operational costs. The results of this research provide four significant policy insights for the strategic development of China’s offshore wind industry. First， while the sector demonstrated a consistently positive trend in emission reduction performance and economic-environmental contribution， it might face the risk of financial deficits by 2025 in the absence of CCER subsidies. Second， economically developed coastal provinces exhibit greater potential for the development of the offshore wind power industry due to their resource， infrastructure， and policy advantages. Third， profitability analysis for 2020 and 2025 indicates that with appropriate policy support， the offshore wind power sector could achieve sustainable economic returns. Fourth， among various air pollutants， the development of the offshore wind industry results in the largest reduction in nitrogen oxides， while the reduction of sulfur dioxide yield the most significant co-benefits. Overall， this study offers important evidence and actionable policy recommendations for planning and regulating the future growth of China's offshore wind power sector， providing a robust analytical basis for both academic research and practical decision-making.
- CCER /
- offshore wind power /
- emission reduction potential /
- economic analysis /
- carbon emissions /
- air pollutant emissions

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