中国铁路运营部门碳排放及其影响因素的时空异质性分析

李敏; 朱芷瑶; 刘沁; 杜蓬勃; 熊欣; 孙家振; 王引生

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202605023

中国铁路运营部门碳排放及其影响因素的时空异质性分析

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202605023

李敏^1,2,
朱芷瑶²,
刘沁²,
杜蓬勃²,
熊欣^2, ,,
孙家振¹,
王引生¹

1. 中铁科学研究院集团有限公司, 成都 610031;
2. 西南交通大学环境科学与工程学院, 成都 611756

基金项目:

四川循环经济研究中心课题“双碳目标下铁路部门碳排放特征与碳交易机制研究”（XHJJ-2304），“建筑业低碳技术创新驱动机制与发展路径研究”（XHJJ-2310）；中国中铁股份有限公司科技研究开发计划项目“工程建造低碳技术体系与碳智能管理系统研究”（科研院2022-重大-01），“碳达峰基础支撑体系研究-A（基于模型驱动的碳排放测算与低碳技术体系实践研究）”（2023-重大-06）

详细信息

作者简介:
李敏(1982—),女,博士,高级工程师,主要研究方向为减污降碳协同控制技术。lmscu@126.com

通讯作者:
熊欣(1994—),女,博士,讲师,主要研究方向为碳排放核算与低碳路径分析。xiongxin@swjtu.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-12-20
- 网络出版日期: 2026-06-06

Spatiotemporal heterogeneities of carbon emissions and driving factors of railway sector in China

1. China Railway Academy Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610031, China;
2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China

摘要

摘要: 明确铁路运输碳排放特点及影响因素是探索铁路行业低碳发展路径的前提，对于交通强国、碳达峰和碳中和等战略目标的实现具有重要意义。研究解析了2016—2021年我国铁路运营部门碳排放的时空动态变化特征，并通过LMDI模型识别了影响碳排放的关键因素及其在时空维度上的差异。结果表明：1）2016—2021年，铁路运营部门碳排放总体呈现上升趋势，从5774.86万t增长至6420.84万t，增长了11.2%，其中上海局、北京局、郑州局、成都局和广州局对碳排放增长量的贡献较高。在空间上，碳排放总体呈现出左低右高的特点；2）能源消耗强度下降使铁路运营部门碳排放减少了1886.54万t，而碳排放强度、经济效益和运营能力的变化使碳排放共增加了2532.52万t。碳排放强度在不同时段均表现为促进作用，其他3个因素在不同时段存在促进作用和抑制作用的转换；3）由于区域间经济水平、产业结构、人口密度等存在差异，18个铁路局碳排放的主导影响因素也表现出明显差异。运营能力增加是客货运大局碳排放增加的主要原因，对于所辖区域社会经济发展水平较高的铁路局，经济效益是促进碳排放增加的主要因素；4）可通过降低空车率、优化能源结构等措施，以及考虑各铁路局自身特点的差异化策略，推动铁路运营部门节能减排。
- 铁路运营部门 /
- 碳排放 /
- 时空异质性 /
- LMDI /
- 驱动因素
Abstract: Identifying the characteristics of carbon emissions and driving forces of the railway sector is essential for formulating effective measures to develop a green and low-carbon railway industry. It is of great importance for the achievement of national strategic goals such as “a country with strong transportation network” and “carbon peak and carbon neutrality”. This study systematically evaluated the direct and indirect carbon emissions from 2016 to 2021 generated by the railway sector of China， and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of the carbon emissions. On this basis， by adopting the LMDI model， the key factors affecting the carbon emissions of railway sector were discerned. Moreover， the variations in the dominant factors of the carbon emissions over time， and the spatial heterogeneities in the dominant factors of the carbon emissions of the 18 railway bureaus， were analyzed. The results show that： 1）During the periods from 2016 to 2021， the carbon emissions of China's railway sector showed an overall upward trend， increasing from 57.7486 million tons to 64.2084 million tons， by 11.2%. The Shanghai Bureau， Beijing Bureau， Zhengzhou Bureau， Chengdu Bureau and Guangzhou Bureau substantially contributed to the increases of railway carbon emissions. In spatial， the carbon emissions of the 18 railway bureaus were characterized by lower emissions in the west and higher emissions in the east， mainly due to the regional differences in the socio-economic development， industrial structure and population density； 2）During 2016 to 2021， the decline in energy consumption intensity reduced the carbon emissions of the railway sector by 18.8654 million tons， while the changes in carbon emission intensity， economic benefits of per unit passenger and freight turnover， and operating capacity led to an increase of a sum of 25.3252 million tons of carbon emissions. When decomposing the contributions of each factor by sub-periods， it can be found that the impacts of these factors on the carbon emissions changed over time. Only the factor of carbon emission intensity showed a promoting effect in all sub-periods， the other three factors， as energy consumption intensity， economic benefits of per unit passenger and freight turnover， and operating capacity， had a conversion between promoting and inhibiting effects in different sub-periods. 3）Due to the differences in regional socio-economic development， population density， industrial structure and energy structure， the dominant influencing factors of carbon emissions of 18 railway bureaus were different. For the railway bureaus with high passenger and freight volume， the increase in operating capacity was the main reason for the increasing carbon emissions. For the railway bureaus with rapid socio-economic development level， the economic benefit of unit passenger and freight turnover was the main factor to promote the increase in carbon emissions. 4）The carbon emissions of railway sector can be reduced by measures of cutting down the empty-loading ratio， optimizing the energy structure， and the differentiation strategy considering the real situation of each railway bureau.
- railway sector /
- carbon emissions /
- spatiotemporal heterogeneities /
- LMDI /
- driving forces

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