基于贝叶斯优化XGBoost模型的盐城市春节烟花爆竹燃放影响评估

裔兆军; 王帅; 王月华; 赵有政; 咸月; 韦婷; 朱文达

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

基于贝叶斯优化XGBoost模型的盐城市春节烟花爆竹燃放影响评估

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

裔兆军¹,
王帅²,
王月华³,
赵有政¹,
咸月¹,
韦婷^4,5, ,,
朱文达⁴

1. 江苏省盐城环境监测中心, 江苏盐城 224000;
2. 中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012;
3. 中冶节能环保有限责任公司, 北京 100088;
4. 南京信息工程大学, 南京 210044;
5. 南京瑞利科学仪器有限公司, 南京 210044

详细信息

作者简介:
裔兆军（1979—），男，高级工程师，主要研究方向为自动监测、环境监测。1367530732@qq.com

通讯作者:
韦婷，女，主要研究方向为环境空气质量。w19914810498@163.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-08-09

Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model

1. Yancheng Environmental Monitoring Center of Jiangsu Province, Yancheng 224000, China;
2. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China;
3. Zhongye Energy Conservation and Environment Protection Co., Ltd., Beijing 100088, China;
4. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
5. Nanjing Rayleigh Scientific Instruments Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210044, China

摘要

摘要: 针对盐城市春节期间烟花爆竹集中燃放引起的细颗粒物（PM_2.5）及其化学组分浓度显著上升的问题，基于盐城市PM_2.5、颗粒物组分和气象观测数据，引入贝叶斯优化XGBoost模型（BO-XGBoost）定量评估烟花爆竹燃放对PM_2.5及其组分浓度变化的贡献。研究结果表明：烟花爆竹集中燃放对不同污染物的影响呈现显著差异化特征，水溶性离子中，K⁺、Mg²⁺为核心特征指示物，除夕时段浓度增长倍数分别达15.89，20.08倍，直接反映燃放活动的高强度排放；SO₄^2-、NO₃^-等二次转化离子在除夕、初五均表现出持续高贡献，体现燃放产生的一次污染物经大气化学转化后的累积效应。无机元素中，K、Ba、Sr为核心特征指示物，除夕时段浓度呈爆发式增长，是烟花爆竹燃放的直接“指纹”；Pb、Mn等元素受燃放影响显著，其浓度波动体现了燃放对重金属的直接排放。时段对比显示，除夕燃放强度显著高于初五，初五时段二次转化过程对污染物浓度的贡献占比提升。研究通过数据驱动模型实现了燃放贡献的精准量化，明确了烟花爆竹燃放的污染指纹特征与时段分异规律，为盐城市春节期间空气质量管控、燃放政策优化提供了科学依据与技术支撑。
- 烟花爆竹燃放 /
- 春节效应 /
- 空气质量 /
- 机器学习 /
- PM_2.5
Abstract: To address the significant increase in fine particulate matter （PM_2.5） and its chemical component concentrations caused by the concentrated setting-off of fireworks and firecrackers during the Spring Festival in Yancheng City， this study introduced the Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model （BO-XGBoost） based on PM_2.5， particulate component， and meteorological observation data in Yancheng City， to quantitatively assess the contribution of fireworks and firecracker setting-off to changes in PM_2.5 and its components. The results showed that the concentrated setting-off of fireworks and firecrackers exerted significantly differentiated effects on various pollutants. Among water-soluble ions， K⁺ and Mg²⁺ were core characteristic tracers， with their concentrations reaching 15.89 and 20.08 times their baseline levels， respectively， on Lunar New Year’s Eve， directly reflecting high-intensity emissions from setting-off activities. Secondary conversion ions such as SO₄^2- and NO₃^- showed sustained high contributions on both Lunar New Year’s Eve and the fifth day of the first lunar month， reflecting the cumulative effect of primary pollutants from setting-off after atmospheric chemical transformation. Among inorganic elements， K， Ba， and Sr were core characteristic tracers， with concentrations showing explosive growth on Lunar New Year’s Eve， serving as direct "fingerprints" of fireworks and firecracker setting-off. Elements such as Pb and Mn were also significantly affected by setting-off， with their concentration fluctuations reflecting direct heavy metal emissions. Temporal comparisons indicated that emission intensity on Lunar New Year’s Eve was significantly higher than that on the fifth day of the first lunar month， and the proportional contribution of secondary conversion processes to pollutant concentrations increased on the fifth day. This study achieved accurate quantification of setting-off contributions through a data-driven model， clarified the pollution fingerprint characteristics and temporal differentiation patterns of fireworks and firecracker setting-off. These findings provide a scientific basis and technical support for air quality management and the optimization of setting-off policies during the Spring Festival in Yancheng City.
- fireworks and firecrackers setting-off /
- Spring Festival effect /
- air quality /
- machine learning /
- PM_2.5

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