基于多源核算的长三角水环境隐孢子虫排放负荷及其空间特征

刘凯成; 肖淑敏; 黄文兵; 孙高伟; 高富; 钟远

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202609001

基于多源核算的长三角水环境隐孢子虫排放负荷及其空间特征

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202609001

刘凯成¹,
肖淑敏^1,2, ,,
黄文兵¹,
孙高伟¹,
高富^1,2,
钟远^1,2

1. 天津城建大学环境与市政工程学院, 天津 300384;
2. 天津市水质科学与技术重点实验室, 天津 300384

基金项目:

天津市自然科学基金项目（24JCZDJC00260）

详细信息

作者简介:
刘凯成(1998—),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为环境健康风险评价。981338252@qq.com

通讯作者:
肖淑敏(1979—),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向为环境健康风险相关研究。xiaoshumin79@126.com

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-10-30
- 网络出版日期: 2026-11-05

Cryptosporidium emission loads and spatial characteristics in aquatic environment of the Yangtze River Delta based on multi-source accounting

1. School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China;
2. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Aquatic Science and Technology, Tianjin 300384, China

摘要

摘要: 隐孢子虫作为一种典型的水源性病原体，其引发的环境介质传播风险是亟需重视的公共安全问题。然而，我国对其在区域尺度的排放通量及空间分布缺乏系统量化，导致环境安全管理存在“黑箱”。研究以长三角为研究区，整合人畜污染源数据，构建隐孢子虫卵囊排放负荷评估模型，采用概率分布拟合感染率、粪便卵囊浓度等关键参数，结合蒙特卡洛模拟量化排放总量及其不确定性，并利用空间制图实现排放负荷的高分辨率可视化。结果表明：长三角水环境隐孢子虫年排放总量为4.78×10¹⁶ 个/a（95%CI： 4.34×10¹⁵～1.68×10¹⁷ 个/a）。家禽养殖是绝对主导排放源，贡献率达94.69%，主要归因于家禽粪便中极高的卵囊浓度（OPG均值5.52 lg个/g）与区域集约化养殖规模的共同驱动。排放负荷呈现出显著的空间异质性，安徽北部（阜阳、亳州等）和江苏东部（盐城、南通等）为明确的污染热点区域。敏感性分析进一步显示，家禽粪便卵囊浓度是核心驱动因子，而粪便管理（如堆放损失率、还田比例等）为可干预的关键环节。该研究对推动“精准识别、重点防控”的环境安全战略，完善生物性污染预警体系具有重要的实践意义。
- 隐孢子虫 /
- 长三角 /
- 水环境 /
- 排放负荷 /
- 空间分布
Abstract: Cryptosporidium， as a typical waterborne pathogen， poses a significant public health risk via environmental transmission and warrants urgent attention. However， systematic quantification of its regional-scale emission fluxes and spatial distribution remains limited in China， resulting in a “black box” in environmental safety management. This study aims to quantify the emission loads of Cryptosporidium oocysts in the aquatic environment， accurately identify key pollution sources and spatial hotspots， and thereby provide a basis for targeted regional risk prevention and control. Focusing on the Yangtze River Delta （YRD） as the study area， human and livestock pollution source data were integrated to develop an assessment model for Cryptosporidium oocyst emission loads. Key parameters （e.g.， infection rate， fecal oocyst concentration） were fitted using probability distributions， and the total emission loads and their uncertainty were quantified via Monte Carlo simulation. High-resolution visualization of the emission loads was achieved through spatial mapping techniques. The results indicate that the total annual emission of Cryptosporidium oocysts into the aquatic environment of the YRD is 4.78×10¹⁶ oocysts/year （95% CI： 4.34×10¹⁵ to 1.68×10¹⁷ oocysts/year）. Poultry farming is the dominant emission source， contributing 94.69%， primarily driven by the high oocyst concentration in poultry feces （mean OPG： 5.52 lg number/g） and the scale of intensive farming in the region. The emission loads exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity， with distinct pollution hotspots identified in northern Anhui （e.g.， Fuyang， Bozhou） and eastern Jiangsu （e.g.， Yancheng， Nantong）. Sensitivity analysis further reveals that the oocyst concentration in poultry feces is the core driving factor， while feces management process parameters （e.g.， storage loss rate， land application ratio） are actionable leverage points for intervention. This study provides practical insights for implementing the environmental safety strategy of “targeted identification and prioritized prevention” and improving the early warning system for biological pollution.
- Cryptosporidium /
- Yangtze River Delta （YRD） /
- aquatic environment /
- emission load /
- spatial distribution

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参考文献(21)

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