基于混合区域化及时空复合特征指标聚类的冷暖骤变事件特征分析

刘康龙; 曹青; 黄潇; 刘俊江

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202609017

基于混合区域化及时空复合特征指标聚类的冷暖骤变事件特征分析

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202609017

刘康龙^1,2,
曹青^1,2, ,,
黄潇^3,4,
刘俊江⁵

1. 水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室/协同创新中心, 南京 210044;
2. 南京信息工程大学水文与水资源; 工程学院, 南京 210044;
3. 南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心/大气环境监测与污染控制研究重点实验室, 南京 210044;
4. 哈尔滨工业大学深圳研究生院土木与环境工程学院, 广东深圳 518000;
5. 国家气象信息中心, 北京 100081

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（42201025）；高端外国专家引进计划项目（G2023014051L）；宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目（2023BEG02054）

详细信息

作者简介:
刘康龙,男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文气象生态的交叉研究。lkl521134@163.com

通讯作者:
曹青,女,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为水文气象生态的交叉研究。qingcao@nuist.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-12-23
- 网络出版日期: 2026-11-05

Characteristics of rapid temperature flip events based on hybrid regionalization and spatiotemporal composite index clustering

LIU Kanglong^1,2,
CAO Qing^{1,2
, ,},
HUANG Xiao^3,4,
LIU Junjiang⁵

1. Key Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
4. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518000, China;
5. National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 冷暖骤变作为一种能够在短时间内引发显著气温反转的极端气候过程，对区域气候异常、生态系统稳定性及社会经济活动具有重要影响。基于1979—2021年CN05.1中国高分辨率逐日气温数据集和同期再分析大气环流资料，构建了一种考虑时间过程与空间连续性的区域尺度冷暖骤变事件识别方法。结合旋转经验正交函数分析与K均值聚类的混合区域化方法，将中国划分为14个气温同质区域，并在典型区域内基于事件持续时间、影响面积、转换时间和转换强度等对冷暖骤变事件进行复合指标聚类分析。同时，通过合成分析探讨，不同类型事件前后大气动力和热力要素的演变特征。结果表明：中国各区域冷暖骤变事件发生频次和类型结构存在显著差异，整体上骤冷事件发生更为频繁，且珠江流域、长江中下游及河套地区表现出较高的冷暖骤变事件活跃度。不同类型冷暖骤变事件在空间尺度、持续时间和强度上呈现清晰分类。尽管事件类型特征存在差异，其生命周期内降水、垂直运动、位势高度、气压和水汽等要素的演变趋势具有较强一致性，表明冷暖骤变事件可在统一的大尺度环流调整框架下加以理解。研究结果有助于深化对区域尺度极端气温快速转变过程的认识，为冷暖骤变事件的机理研究、监测评估及其潜在影响分析提供了重要参考。
- 冷暖骤变 /
- 区域化 /
- 聚类分析 /
- 环流分析 /
- 空间连续性事件
Abstract: Rapid temperature flips， characterized by abrupt transitions between warm and cold extremes within a short period， pose substantial challenges to regional climate variability， ecosystem stability， and socio-economic systems. Based on the CN05.1 High-Resolution Daily Gridded Temperature Dataset over China for 1979—2021 and concurrent reanalysis atmospheric circulation data， a regional-scale identification framework for rapid temperature flip events was developed by explicitly accounting for their temporal evolution and spatial continuity. By integrating rotated empirical orthogonal function （REOF） analysis with K-means clustering， China was divided into 14 homogeneous temperature regions. Within representative regions， rapid temperature flip events were further classified using a set of composite indices， including event duration， spatial coverage， transition time， and transition intensity. Composite analyses were then conducted to examine the evolution of atmospheric dynamical and thermodynamical variables before and after different types of events. The results reveal pronounced regional differences in both the frequency and structural characteristics of rapid temperature flips across China. Overall， cold-related flips occur more frequently than warm-related flips， with higher event frequency observed over the Pearl River Basin， the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River， and the Hetao region （the Great Bend of the Yellow River）. Distinct event types exhibit clear separations in spatial scale， persistence， and intensity. Despite these differences， the lifecycle evolution of precipitation， vertical motion， geopotential height， surface pressure， and specific humidity anomalies shows strong consistency across event types， indicating that rapid temperature flips can be understood within a unified large-scale circulation adjustment framework. These findings advance the understanding of rapid temperature reversals at the regional scale and provide a scientific basis for mechanism studies， monitoring strategies， and impact assessments of rapid temperature flip events.
- rapid temperature flips /
- regionalization /
- cluster analysis /
- atmospheric circulation analysis /
- spatially continuous events

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