黄河流域城市碳排放的区域差异与动态演进研究

陈蓓蓓; 张定海

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202609026

黄河流域城市碳排放的区域差异与动态演进研究

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202609026

陈蓓蓓¹,
张定海^2, ,

1. 甘肃农业大学财经学院, 兰州 730070;
2. 甘肃农业大学理学院, 兰州 730070

详细信息

作者简介:
陈蓓蓓(2001—),女,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为碳排放与资源环境。1354668510@qq.com

通讯作者:
张定海(1981—),男,教授,主要研究方向为经济统计和生态统计。zhangdh@gsau.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2025-07-17
- 网络出版日期: 2026-11-05

Regional differences and dynamic evolution of urban carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin

CHEN Beibei¹,
ZHANG Dinghai^{2
, ,}

1. College of Finance and Economics, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

摘要

摘要: 为助力黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展及“双碳”目标实现，以1997—2020年黄河流域69个地级市碳排放数据为基础，运用泰尔指数、核密度估计、标准差椭圆及莫兰指数等方法，系统探究该流域碳排放的时空变化与区域差异特征。结果显示：1997—2020年，黄河流域碳排放总量整体呈上升态势，但2011年后增速显著放缓；区域差异明显且逐步缩小，上游地区碳排放增长最快，中游次之，下游相对稳定。空间分布上，碳排放重心向西偏移，分布范围从集聚趋于分散，空间集聚效应随时间减弱；莫兰指数表明碳排放存在显著空间正相关性，然其集聚效应亦呈减弱趋势。基于此，研究提出针对上、中、下游制定差异化减排政策、加强区域协同治理的建议，为推动黄河流域绿色低碳转型提供科学参考。
- 碳排放 /
- 黄河流域 /
- 时空动态演进 /
- 区域差异 /
- 空间集聚 /
- 差异化减排
Abstract: To support the ecological protection， high-quality development， and the achievement of the Dual Carbon Goals in the Yellow River Basin， this study systematically investigated the spatiotemporal variations and regional disparityies of carbon emissions in the basin. Drawing on carbon emission data from 69 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin for the period 1997 to 2020， this study employed methods including the Theil index， kernel density estimation， standard deviational ellipse， and Moran's I index. The results indicated that the total carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin exhibited an overall upward trend from 1997 to 2020， but the growth rate reduced significantly after 2011. Notable regional disparities existed but gradually narrowed： carbon emissions in the upper reaches grew the fastest， followed by those in the middle reaches， while those in the lower reaches remained relatively stable. In terms of spatial distribution， the center of carbon emissions shifted westward， and the distribution pattern transitioned from agglomeration to dispersion， with the spatial agglomeration effect weakening over time. Moran's I index revealed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions， although this agglomeration effect also showed a weakening trend. Based on these findings， this study proposed formulating differentiated emission reduction policies for the upper， middle， and lower reaches of the basin and strengthening regional collaborative governance， thereby providing a scientific reference for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the Yellow River Basin.
- carbon emissions /
- the Yellow River Basin /
- spatiotemporal dynamic evolution /
- regional disparities /
- spatial agglomeration /
- differentiated emission reduction

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