NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL

GAO Shang; HU Peng; CUI Song; ZHANG Zu-lin; XING Zhen-xiang; ZHANG Fu-xiang

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202010013

Volume 38 Issue 10

Nov. 2020

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Article Navigation > ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING > 2020 > 38(10): 83-89

GAO Shang, HU Peng, CUI Song, ZHANG Zu-lin, XING Zhen-xiang, ZHANG Fu-xiang. NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(10): 83-89. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202010013

Citation:

GAO Shang, HU Peng, CUI Song, ZHANG Zu-lin, XING Zhen-xiang, ZHANG Fu-xiang. NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(10): 83-89. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202010013

Citation:

GAO Shang, HU Peng, CUI Song, ZHANG Zu-lin, XING Zhen-xiang, ZHANG Fu-xiang. NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2020, 38(10): 83-89. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202010013

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NUMERICA SIMULATION AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN NAOLI RIVER BASIN BASED ON SWAT MODEL

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202010013

1. School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;
2. Research Center for Eco-Environment Protection of Songhua River Basin, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;
3. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
4. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, Chian

Received Date: 2020-07-17

Abstract

Abstract

Exploring the influence of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty of the hydrological model on runoff simulation has considerable significance. This study used the SWAT model to simulate the surface runoff process in the Naoli River Basin. The SUFI-2 method was used to evaluate the influence of the model parameter sensitivity and uncertainty on the simulation results, while the coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (E_NS) were selected to evaluate the accuracy of the model. The sensitivity analysis results showed that the four parameters, including the number of CN2.mgt, SLSUBBSN.hru, SOL_BD.sol, and SOL_K.sol were the most significant parameters for the runoff simulation of Naoli River Basin. It showed that CN2, soil and topography were the most important factors affecting the runoff of Naoli River Basin. The monthly runoff simulation process fitted well with the measured hydrological process, and the R² and E_NS were 0.68, 0.67 and 0.76, 0.44 during the period calibration and validation periods, respectively, which reached satisfactory level. The results of uncertainty analysis showed that the p-factor was 0.78 and the r-factor was 0.94, indicating that there was less uncertainty, which further verified the applicability of the model. The results could provide references for SWAT model application and parameter calibration in other similar basins.
- SWAT model,
- Naoli River Basin,
- surface runoff,
- uncertainty analysis

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