CARBON EMISSION ACCOUNTING AND PEAK FORECASTING OF IRON & STEEL INDUSTRY IN TANGSHAN

Tangshan, as an industrial-intensive city, accounted for about 15% of China’s iron, crude steel, and steel production in 2018, and emitted large amount of greenhouse gases and atmospheric pollutants. This paper took Tangshan as an example and studied trend of the production carbon emission of steel industry from 2010 to 2030 and determined the peak time. Based on the calculation method provided by Greenhouse Gas Emission Accounting and Reporting Requirements, in this paper, we preliminarily established a numerical formula that can calculate the enterprise’s CO₂ emission based on the equipment scale, operating time, capacity utilization rate and unit product energy consumption parameters. Then we applied it into all enterprises of Tangshan in 2017, and the carbon emission was calculated as 140,425,200 tons, and the carbon emission coefficient was 1.616 t CO₂/t steel. Compared with the literature and statistical yearbook data, the relative error was less than 10%, indicating that the numerical formula had a certain accuracy, which could provide references for the bottom-up rapid accounting of carbon emission from steel production in enterprises or regions. At the same time, we combined the historical production status, production status and future planning of the industry, an energy demand model was constructed by LEAP model to obtain the trends of fossil energy consumption and carbon emission of Tangshan’s iron and steel production from 2010 to 2030, and we find the carbon emission had already peaked in 2018.