INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL

WANG Zhiqiang; LI Kehui; REN Jin'ge; ZHANG Qi

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

Volume 41 Issue 10

Oct. 2023

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WANG Zhiqiang, LI Kehui, REN Jin'ge, ZHANG Qi. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2023, 41(10): 108-116. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

Citation:

WANG Zhiqiang, LI Kehui, REN Jin'ge, ZHANG Qi. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2023, 41(10): 108-116. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

Citation:

WANG Zhiqiang, LI Kehui, REN Jin'ge, ZHANG Qi. INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2023, 41(10): 108-116. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

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INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND SCENARIO FORECAST OF CARBON EMISSIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON LMDI-SD MODEL

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202310014

School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266000, China

Received Date: 2023-01-08
Available Online: 2023-12-26

Abstract

Abstract

Taking the construction industry of Shandong Province as the research object, this paper analyzes the relevant influencing factors of carbon emissions through the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model, builds a system dynamics model, and predicts the impact of four different scenarios on carbon emissions by regulating GDP growth rate, the proportions of building materials and carbon trading policy. The results show that:1) the economic benefit effect and indirect carbon emission intensity are the main driving factors affecting the carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province. 2) Under the single policy simulation scenario, the growth trend of the total carbon emissions of the construction industry in Shandong Province has slowed down year by year. Compared with the economic growth and carbon trading policy adjustment, the contribution of the improvement of the building materials structure to the emission reduction is higher. 3) Under the comprehensive regulation and control plan, the carbon emission intensity of the construction industry of Shandong Province in 2030 will decrease by 64.34% compared with 2006, which reaches the national goal of reducing the carbon emission intensity by 60% in 2030.
- construction industry of Shandong Province,
- LMDI,
- SD,
- carbon emissions,
- influencing factor,
- scenario forecast

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References(35)

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