ANALYSIS OF CARBON EMISSION CHARACTERISTICS AND CARBON REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF CAMPUS BUILDING OPERATION BASED ON STIRPAT MODEL

In order to promote the leading role of campus in carbon neutralization action and take the lead in realizing campus carbon neutralization, based on the data of energy monitoring center, the carbon emission of a university building in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2021 was measured, the STIRPAT model of carbon emission of campus building operation was constructed, and three scenarios of baseline scenarios, low carbon scenarios and ultra-low carbon scenarios were set by scenario analysis method, to forecast the changing trend of carbon emission of campus building operation phase from 2022 to 2035, and targeted carbon reduction suggestions were put forward. Results showed that the carbon emissions of campus buildings showed significant seasonal characteristics. Dormitory carbon emissions were the main source of carbon emissions in the operation stage of campus buildings, mainly functional carbon emissions. Energy structure and energy consumption intensity had a greater impact on carbon emissions, while the number of energy users and building area had a relatively smaller impact. Under both low-carbon scenario and ultra-low-carbon scenario, the carbon peak in the campus can all be achieved before 2030.