Evaluation on impact of fireworks on PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration during the Spring Festival based on machine learning

LI Jinhui; HU Qihou; LI Qihua; JI Xiangguang; XUE Jingkai; LIN Peize

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202503008

Volume 43 Issue 3

Mar. 2025

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Article Navigation > ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING > 2025 > 43(3): 90-102

LI Jinhui, HU Qihou, LI Qihua, JI Xiangguang, XUE Jingkai, LIN Peize. Evaluation on impact of fireworks on PM2.5 concentration during the Spring Festival based on machine learning[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2025, 43(3): 90-102. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202503008

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LI Jinhui, HU Qihou, LI Qihua, JI Xiangguang, XUE Jingkai, LIN Peize. Evaluation on impact of fireworks on PM_2.5 concentration during the Spring Festival based on machine learning[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2025, 43(3): 90-102. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202503008

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Evaluation on impact of fireworks on PM_2.5 concentration during the Spring Festival based on machine learning

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202503008

1. Institutes of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Environment Optics and Technology, Anhui Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics, Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei 230031, China;
3. School of Environmental Science and Optoelectronic Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China

Received Date: 2024-11-12
Accepted Date: 2024-12-24
Rev Recd Date: 2024-12-12

Available Online: 2025-06-07

Publish Date: 2025-03-01

Abstract

Abstract

Since the enactment of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan， China has implemented strict pollution control measures and achieved significant results. However， the ban on fireworks has been controversial since its inception. With the annual PM_2.5 concentration in most cities reaching the level Ⅱ of Ambient Air Quality Standard （GB 3095—2012）， it is urgent to quantify the role of the fireworks ban in improving air quality. This paper utilized observational data from China's National Environmental Monitoring Center and ERA5 meteorological data to construct a random forest model， decoupling the contributions of meteorological factors and human emissions to particulate matter concentrations. It assessed the impact of the fireworks ban on PM_2.5 concentrations during the Spring Festival， winter， and the entire year. From an interannual perspective， the PM_2.5 concentrations in cities across China significantly decreased from 2016 to 2023， with an annual average decline rate of 4.2% to 7.5%. Comparing the PM_2.5 concentration change rates due to human emissions in three time scales：annual， winter， and the Spring Festival，using Beijing and Shanghai as examples， the annual average decline rates were 9.58% and 7.36%， winter's annual average decline rates were 10.07% and 7.94%， and the Spring Festival decline rates were 9.14% and 6.23%. This indicated a pattern of winter > annual > the Spring Festival， meaning that in the same city， the concentration changes due to human emissions were significant throughout the year and in winter， but minimal during the Spring Festival. Comparing the PM_2.5 concentration changes due to human emissions in the Spring Festival from 2016 to 2022， and 2019 to 2023， the reduction effects were evident in the same city from 2016 to 2022， with faster change rates. Notably， PM_2.5 concentrations in Beijing， Guangzhou， and Hefei decreased by 9.14%， 8.57%， and 6.71%， respectively. The emission reduction rates were slowed down from 2019 to 2023. Moreover，some cities showed an increasing trend. The PM_2.5 concentrations in Guangzhou， Chengdu and Changsha increased by 13.69%， 11.42%， and 5.77%， respectively. In the short-term analysis of the impact of fireworks emissions on air quality management， the study focused on two periods： the limit to ban period （2017 vs. 2018） and the ban to limit period （2022 vs. 2023）， examining the contributions of meteorological and human emissions to the changes in particulate matter concentrations during the Spring Festival. The results showed that after the full ban on fireworks in 2018， the PM_2.5 concentration from emissions dropped significantly， with reductions in Beijing， Guangzhou， Chengdu， Changsha， and Hefei by 14.87，4.54，26.17，15.67，27.61 μg/m³， respectively. In contrast， after the ban was cancelled in 2023， the contribution from emissions increased significantly， especially in Guangzhou， Chengdu， Changsha， Zhengzhou， Binzhou and Dongying， with increases of 14.71，22.89，18.47，19.73，12.72，4.89 μg/m³， respectively. While the impact of fireworks on PM_2.5 concentrations during winter and annually can be considered negligible， its effect on air quality during the Spring Festival remains significant.
- machine learning,
- random forest,
- air pollution,
- setting off fireworks

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References(55)

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