Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model

YANG Mengxia; QIN Weikai; SHEN Pengfei; CHEN Xiaohuan; YANG Lulu; LI Yonggang; ZHANG Lechuan; GAO Yuchen; JIANG Jianguo

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

Volume 43 Issue 6

Jun. 2025

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Article Navigation > ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING > 2025 > 43(6): 177-187

YANG Mengxia, QIN Weikai, SHEN Pengfei, CHEN Xiaohuan, YANG Lulu, LI Yonggang, ZHANG Lechuan, GAO Yuchen, JIANG Jianguo. Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2025, 43(6): 177-187. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

Citation:

YANG Mengxia, QIN Weikai, SHEN Pengfei, CHEN Xiaohuan, YANG Lulu, LI Yonggang, ZHANG Lechuan, GAO Yuchen, JIANG Jianguo. Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2025, 43(6): 177-187. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

Citation:

YANG Mengxia, QIN Weikai, SHEN Pengfei, CHEN Xiaohuan, YANG Lulu, LI Yonggang, ZHANG Lechuan, GAO Yuchen, JIANG Jianguo. Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2025, 43(6): 177-187. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

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Analysis and prediction of municipal solid waste collection trend under social scenarios of epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies based on system dynamics model

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202506018

1. China Iron Construction & Investment Construction Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 101300, China;
2. Environment R&D Center of China Iron Construction & Investment Construction Group, Shanghai 200331, China;
3. School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
4. China Railway Water Group Co., Ltd., Xi'an 710000, China

Received Date: 2024-08-02
Accepted Date: 2024-09-18
Rev Recd Date: 2024-09-04

Abstract

Abstract

In recent years，a compulsory domestic waste classification system has been implemented in China， and conflicts between this new system and the existing municipal sanitation system have begun to emerge. In order to analyze the impact of waste classification on municipal solid waste collection volume， based on the system dynamics theory， VENSIM software was used to analyze the key factors affecting the production volume of municipal solid waste， draw a causal loop diagram， establish a stock flow model， and predict collection trends under different social scenarios， including epidemics and mandatory domestic waste classification policies. Using Beijing and Shenzhen as representative cities from northern and southern China respectively， this study analyzed the data from 2010 to 2020， and projected municipal solid waste collection trends for 2021 to 2035 under four scenarios：no-pandemic with no waste classification， business-as-usual baseline， waste reduction， and slow recovery. The results showed that the epidemic and social factors such as pandemic containment measures and waste classification policies had a significant reduction effect on both per capita generation （adjusted by waste-producing population） and total collection volume. Under the waste reduction scenario， measures such as increasing waste disposal fees and promoting pre-processed vegetables are projected to reduce the annual per capita waste production in Beijing and Shenzhen by 16.3% and 17.8% respectively by 2025， with cumulative reductions of 11.2% and 24.0% over the following decade. If the current classification system is maintained， municipal solid waste collection volumes in Beijing and Shenzhen will reach 12.2751 and 12.0433 million tons in 2035， respectively， representing reductions of 12.9% and 17.5% compared to the no-classification scenario.
- municipal solid waste,
- epidemic,
- waste classification,
- system dynamics,
- waste collection volume projection,
- simulation modeling

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References(32)

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