Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model

YI Zhaojun; WANG Shuai; WANG Yuehua; ZHAO Youzheng; XIAN Yue; WEI Ting; ZHU Wenda

doi:10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

Volume 44 Issue 8

Aug. 2026

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Article Navigation > ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING > 2026 > 44(8): 220-230

YI Zhaojun, WANG Shuai, WANG Yuehua, ZHAO Youzheng, XIAN Yue, WEI Ting, ZHU Wenda. Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2026, 44(8): 220-230. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

Citation:

YI Zhaojun, WANG Shuai, WANG Yuehua, ZHAO Youzheng, XIAN Yue, WEI Ting, ZHU Wenda. Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2026, 44(8): 220-230. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

Citation:

YI Zhaojun, WANG Shuai, WANG Yuehua, ZHAO Youzheng, XIAN Yue, WEI Ting, ZHU Wenda. Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING , 2026, 44(8): 220-230. doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

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Evaluation on impact of spring festival fireworks and firecrackers setting-off on Yancheng City based on a Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model

doi: 10.13205/j.hjgc.202608021

1. Yancheng Environmental Monitoring Center of Jiangsu Province, Yancheng 224000, China;
2. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China;
3. Zhongye Energy Conservation and Environment Protection Co., Ltd., Beijing 100088, China;
4. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
5. Nanjing Rayleigh Scientific Instruments Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210044, China

Received Date: 2025-08-09

Abstract

Abstract

To address the significant increase in fine particulate matter （PM_2.5） and its chemical component concentrations caused by the concentrated setting-off of fireworks and firecrackers during the Spring Festival in Yancheng City， this study introduced the Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model （BO-XGBoost） based on PM_2.5， particulate component， and meteorological observation data in Yancheng City， to quantitatively assess the contribution of fireworks and firecracker setting-off to changes in PM_2.5 and its components. The results showed that the concentrated setting-off of fireworks and firecrackers exerted significantly differentiated effects on various pollutants. Among water-soluble ions， K⁺ and Mg²⁺ were core characteristic tracers， with their concentrations reaching 15.89 and 20.08 times their baseline levels， respectively， on Lunar New Year’s Eve， directly reflecting high-intensity emissions from setting-off activities. Secondary conversion ions such as SO₄^2- and NO₃^- showed sustained high contributions on both Lunar New Year’s Eve and the fifth day of the first lunar month， reflecting the cumulative effect of primary pollutants from setting-off after atmospheric chemical transformation. Among inorganic elements， K， Ba， and Sr were core characteristic tracers， with concentrations showing explosive growth on Lunar New Year’s Eve， serving as direct "fingerprints" of fireworks and firecracker setting-off. Elements such as Pb and Mn were also significantly affected by setting-off， with their concentration fluctuations reflecting direct heavy metal emissions. Temporal comparisons indicated that emission intensity on Lunar New Year’s Eve was significantly higher than that on the fifth day of the first lunar month， and the proportional contribution of secondary conversion processes to pollutant concentrations increased on the fifth day. This study achieved accurate quantification of setting-off contributions through a data-driven model， clarified the pollution fingerprint characteristics and temporal differentiation patterns of fireworks and firecracker setting-off. These findings provide a scientific basis and technical support for air quality management and the optimization of setting-off policies during the Spring Festival in Yancheng City.
- fireworks and firecrackers setting-off,
- Spring Festival effect,
- air quality,
- machine learning,
- PM_2.5

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References(28)

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