SYSTEM DYNAMICS PREDICTION OF CARBON PEAKING IN PEARL RIVER DELTA

According to the data from 2000 to 2020, the investigation employed the emission coefficient method provided by IPCC to estimate the total annual carbon emissions of the Pearl River Delta during the study period. Using the STIRPAT model, the influencing factors were categorized into seven dimensions. When analyzing the factors that affected the carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta, the spatial Dubin model was applied, and eight forecast scenarios were formulated depending on the development goals proposed by Guangdong province. For the prediction of the trend of carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta, this paper dynamically forecast the situation under different policy plans from 2021 to 2035 on the basis of system dynamics. The research results were as follows:1) under the established policy scenarios, the total carbon emission of the Pearl River Delta would reach its peak in 2030; 2) certain policy interventions could reduce carbon emission, in other words, to achieve carbon peak was inseparable from the active participation of government rather than relaxed management; 3) in the context of single emission reduction policy, the Pearl River Delta would realize the carbon peak in 2025-2030 under most prediction scenarios; 4) the coordinated control of multiple carbon emission reduction policies could accomplish carbon peak in 2024, better than single carbon emission reduction policy. In addition, relying on the consequence of the spatial Dubin model and carbon emission prediction, targeted policy recommendations such as increasing urban greening, paying attention to inter-city spatial connection and policy coordination, optimizing industrial structure, improving power system and strengthening residents' awareness of green consumption were proposed, which would help to achieve carbon peaking.